Six events resolve today, led by $40.9k on the Levante UD vs. FC Barcelona spread and lone six-figure-conviction single trades on Bayern and PSG. The week's standouts are macro and geopolitical: $31.7k on a 2026 Fed rate hike and $27.2k fading a US-Iran ceasefire.
The largest flow resolving today — $40.9k across six trades — landed on the Levante UD side of the FC Barcelona -2.5 spread at 53% implied. We lean Levante, meaning Barcelona fails to cover.
View market →$25.8k across five trades bought the Over on the 44.5-point total in Bills vs. Texans, with the Over priced at just 49% implied. We lean Over — a combined score above 44.5.
View market →A single $24.9k trade backed FC Bayern München to beat SV 07 Elversberg at 86% implied — size and conviction from one wallet rather than a crowd. We lean Bayern.
View market →$23.7k across six trades bought Barcelona to win at 86% implied. Read alongside the spread market, where the same flow took Levante at -2.5, the combined position points to a Barcelona win that stays inside three goals.
View market →One $19.8k trade backed Paris Saint-Germain to beat Stade Brestois 29 at 79% implied — a sizeable bet on a favorite that still leaves room over the price. We lean PSG.
View market →$18k across three trades bought the Steelers to beat the Falcons at 69% implied. Smaller than the day's soccer flow but concentrated on one side. We lean Steelers.
View market →$29.9k across four trades bought No on Israeli forces withdrawing from beyond the Litani River in Lebanon by December 31, with No priced at 79% implied. We lean no withdrawal by the deadline.
View market →This week's strongest signal: $27.2k over four trades bought the No side — no effective US-Iran ceasefire by September 30 — at 24% implied, taking the cheap side against a market that prices the ceasefire as the likely outcome. We lean No.
View market →$11.5k across four trades took No on United Russia winning between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian legislative election, with No at 77% implied. We lean the seat count landing outside that band, resolving September 20.
View market →$10.7k across three trades bought No on a China-Philippines military clash before 2027, with No at 73% implied. We lean no clash, though the price leaves real room for the alternative.
View market →The week's biggest position, $31.7k across three trades, bought Yes on the Fed raising rates in 2026 at 89% implied. We lean hike, with the market resolving December 9.
View market →