Three markets resolve today, and five more pulled the heaviest smart-money flow this week. Here's where the large trades landed and which side we lean.
Just under $17,000 across two large trades sided with No — meaning no Israeli military action against Lebanon on September 14 — at an 89% implied price. We lean No: a quiet day on the Israel-Lebanon file.
View market →About $36.8k across five trades backed Yes on Leeds United beating Newcastle United, at a 42% implied price — an underdog call rather than a chalk one. We lean Leeds.
View market →One $11.2k trade took the Over on 8.5 total corners in Torino FC vs. AS Roma at a 48% implied price. Small trade count, but all of the size is on one side, and we lean Over.
View market →A single $42.8k trade backed Yes — the Democratic Party controlling the House after the 2026 US midterm elections — at an 81% implied price. We lean Democratic control, with the market not resolving until November 3.
View market →$13.3k across three trades took No — Ukraine does not target Moscow before the September 15 deadline — at an 85% implied price. We lean No, largely because the clock runs out tomorrow.
View market →An $11.3k trade backed Yes on Netanyahu leaving office by the end of 2026, at a 47% implied price — close to a coin flip. We lean Yes, which is the more contrarian read on a market with months left to run.
View market →The week's heaviest flow — $92.4k across three trades — landed on the Broncos to beat the Chiefs at a 45% implied price. We lean Broncos: this is the largest one-sided underdog position on the board.
View market →$32.6k across three trades backed Yes on Real Madrid CF winning against Elche CF, at a 77% implied price. Favorites, but the size is entirely one way, and we lean Real Madrid.
View market →