Four markets resolve today and the heaviest flow is in soccer: $32.6k on Real Madrid and $32.4k against a Liverpool win. The week's bigger positions are almost all geopolitics, and most of them are paying for nothing to happen.
$13.3k across three trades on the No side at 85% implied that Ukraine targets Moscow before this market closes today. We lean with them: no strike on Moscow.
View market →$32.6k across three trades on Real Madrid to win, with Yes priced at 77% implied — the largest position resolving today. We lean Real Madrid.
View market →$32.4k over three trades took the No side on a Liverpool win, priced at 45% implied, in this EFL Cup tie with Tottenham. We lean against Liverpool winning.
View market →A single $23.4k trade on Deportivo Alaves to beat Valencia, with Yes at 56% implied — a near coin-flip someone sized up hard. We lean Alaves.
View market →The week's biggest position, $33.6k over four trades, sits on the No side at 82% implied that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attends a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31. We lean no-show.
View market →$30.8k across four trades on the No side at 80% implied that Russia captures Bilytske in Ukraine by September 30. We lean against the capture landing in time.
View market →$20.6k over three trades bought the No side, at 69% implied, of the "Trump and Putin do not meet" market — in plain terms, a bet that the two do sit down in 2026. We lean toward a meeting happening.
View market →Our highest-scoring alert of the week: $13.3k across four trades on the No side at 64% implied for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15. We lean no meeting.
View market →$12.7k over two trades on the Democrats to win the 2028 US presidential election, with Yes at 68% implied — a long-dated position someone is comfortable holding. We lean Democrats.
View market →