Israel: $33.6k bet on Netanyahu as next prime minister
Leaning: Yes (35% implied)
One trade put $33.6k on Benjamin Netanyahu being Israel's prime minister after the next election. The market gives him only a 35% chance, so this is a contrarian bet on the underdog, and we lean toward Netanyahu.
View market →Brazil: Smart money backs Flávio Bolsonaro for president
Leaning: Yes (58% implied)
One trade put $20.2k on Flávio Bolsonaro winning Brazil's 2026 presidential election. The market already makes him the favorite at 58%, and we lean toward Bolsonaro winning.
View market →Ohio: Smart money bets against a data center moratorium
Leaning: No (88% implied)
One trade put $14.9k on Ohio not enacting a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026. The market puts 'no moratorium' at 88%, meaning only about a 12% chance one passes. We lean toward no moratorium.
View market →OpenAI: $10k bet against another Millennium Prize solution
Leaning: No (69% implied)
One trade put $10.1k on OpenAI not announcing another solution to a Millennium Prize math problem by December 31, 2026. The market prices 'no announcement' at 69%, about a 31% chance it happens. We lean toward no announcement.
View market →