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September 30, 2026

Smart money: Braves over Phillies, Netanyahu return, Bolsonaro in Brazil

Two games settle today: $71.6k on MLB's Phillies vs. Braves and a $37.4k single bet in Dota 2. Further out, big single bets are on Israel's next prime minister, Brazil's presidential election, an Ohio data center moratorium and OpenAI.

Resolving Today

MLB: Smart money backs Braves over Phillies today

Leaning: Atlanta Braves (49% implied)

Five trades put $71.6k behind the Atlanta Braves against the Philadelphia Phillies, the biggest flow in today's picks. The market has Atlanta at 49%, so this is a bet on a near coin flip, and we lean Braves.

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Dota 2: $37k bet on Xtreme Gaming vs Level UP

Leaning: Xtreme Gaming (84% implied)

One trade put $37.4k on Xtreme Gaming to beat Level UP in a best-of-three series in BLAST Slam Group A. Xtreme is the heavy favorite at 84% implied, so this is a large bet on the favorite for a smaller payout. We lean Xtreme Gaming.

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Top This Week

Israel: $33.6k bet on Netanyahu as next prime minister

Leaning: Yes (35% implied)

One trade put $33.6k on Benjamin Netanyahu being Israel's prime minister after the next election. The market gives him only a 35% chance, so this is a contrarian bet on the underdog, and we lean toward Netanyahu.

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Brazil: Smart money backs Flávio Bolsonaro for president

Leaning: Yes (58% implied)

One trade put $20.2k on Flávio Bolsonaro winning Brazil's 2026 presidential election. The market already makes him the favorite at 58%, and we lean toward Bolsonaro winning.

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Ohio: Smart money bets against a data center moratorium

Leaning: No (88% implied)

One trade put $14.9k on Ohio not enacting a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026. The market puts 'no moratorium' at 88%, meaning only about a 12% chance one passes. We lean toward no moratorium.

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OpenAI: $10k bet against another Millennium Prize solution

Leaning: No (69% implied)

One trade put $10.1k on OpenAI not announcing another solution to a Millennium Prize math problem by December 31, 2026. The market prices 'no announcement' at 69%, about a 31% chance it happens. We lean toward no announcement.

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Smart money: Braves over Phillies, Netanyahu return, Bolsonaro in Brazil | PolySpotter