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October 2, 2026

Smart money bets on goals in France vs. Italy, and $48k on an Anthropic IPO

Today's biggest bet is on goals in France vs. Italy in the UEFA Nations League. Across the rest of the week, large bettors went against the Democrats in South Carolina, backed Anthropic in the race for 2026's largest IPO and took the Patriots with the points against the Bills.

Resolving Today

Nations League: France vs. Italy backed for 4+ goals

Leaning: Over (39% implied)

One $11.8k bet in the UEFA Nations League says France vs. Italy will have more than 3.5 total goals. The market gives the Over only a 39% chance, so this bettor is going against the crowd. We lean Over.

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Top This Week

$57k bets Democrats lose South Carolina Senate race

Leaning: No (87% implied)

Two trades totaling $57.5k bet that the Democrats will not win South Carolina's 2026 Senate race. The market already gives that outcome an 87% chance, so this is a large bet on the favorite. We lean toward the Democrats losing.

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Smart money bets Missouri won't pause data center building

Leaning: No (60% implied)

Eight trades totaling $40.4k bet that Missouri will not enact a moratorium on data centers by December 31, 2028. The market gives No a 60% chance. Steady buying across many trades is what makes this flow notable. We lean No.

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$13k bet that Trump speaks with Ahmed al-Sharaa this month

Leaning: Yes (49% implied)

One $13.4k trade bets that Donald Trump will speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31. The market sees this as a coin flip, giving Yes a 49% chance. We lean Yes.

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$48k bet that Anthropic has 2026's largest IPO

Leaning: Yes (48% implied)

One $48k bet says Anthropic will have the highest IPO market cap of 2026. The market puts Yes at 48%, close to even, and this is one of the largest single bets of the week. We lean Yes.

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NFL: $32k on Patriots to cover +6.5 against Bills

Leaning: Patriots (48% implied)

A $32k bet on Patriots vs. Bills takes New England with 6.5 points. The bet wins if the Bills fail to win by 7 or more. The market gives the Patriots side a 48% chance. We lean Patriots.

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Smart money bets on goals in France vs. Italy, and $48k on an Anthropic IPO | PolySpotter