2026 midterms: $151K bet against a Democratic sweep
Leaning: No (36% implied)
One trader put $151,200 on No in the market asking whether Democrats win both the Senate and the House in the 2026 midterms. We lean No: the 'Democrats don't take both chambers' side is priced at 36%, so the market rates a full Democratic sweep at about 64%.
View market →Indiana data center moratorium: $106K bets it won't happen
Leaning: No (65% implied)
Across six trades, about $106,000 went on Indiana NOT enacting a moratorium on data centers by December 31, 2028. This was the highest-scoring flow of the week. We lean No, priced at 65%.
View market →2028 US presidential election: smart money backs JD Vance
Leaning: Yes (21% implied)
Two trades totaling about $56,000 bet that JD Vance wins the 2028 US presidential election. We lean Yes on Vance, which the market prices at 21%. At that price, a win pays out several times the stake.
View market →Israel election: $20K bet on Netanyahu as next prime minister
Leaning: Yes (34% implied)
One trader put about $20,600 on Benjamin Netanyahu being Israel's prime minister after the next election. We lean Yes on Netanyahu, priced at 34%.
View market →NFL: sharps back the Packers against the Bears
Leaning: Packers (45% implied)
Nine trades totaling about $29,600 went on the Green Bay Packers to beat the Chicago Bears on October 11. We lean Packers, who are slight underdogs at 45% implied.
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