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October 10, 2026

Today: $81k against Brentford at Aston Villa, plus Bayern and Porto spreads

Our scanner flagged large bets on today's Premier League, Bundesliga, Primeira Liga, college football and Counter-Strike games. Below that are the week's biggest bets on Spanish and US politics, the US-Iran ceasefire and Sunday's NFL games.

Resolving Today

Premier League: $81k bets Brentford won't beat Aston Villa

Leaning: No (61% implied)

There were 22 trades totaling about $81k in Aston Villa vs. Brentford, the most money in today's picks. They bought No on 'Will Brentford win?', priced at 61%, so the bet pays if Villa wins or the game ends in a draw.

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Premier League: one $30k bet on Fulham to beat Ipswich

Leaning: Yes (39% implied)

A single trade of about $30k backed Fulham to win against Ipswich Town. The market prices a Fulham win at 39%, so this bettor is paying for an outcome the market rates as less likely than not.

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Portugal's Primeira Liga: $17k on Marítimo to cover against Porto

Leaning: CS Marítimo (52% implied)

One trade of about $17k took CS Marítimo on the Porto -1.5 spread, priced at 52%. The bet wins unless Porto beats Marítimo by two or more goals.

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Bundesliga: sharps bet Bayern won't beat Augsburg by three

Leaning: FC Augsburg (52% implied)

Five trades totaling about $16.5k took FC Augsburg on the Bayern München -2.5 spread, priced at 52%. The bet wins unless Bayern beats Augsburg by three or more goals.

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College football: $15k on Alabama to cover against Georgia

Leaning: Alabama (53% implied)

One trade of about $15k backed Alabama on the -1.5 spread against Georgia, priced at 53%. To win, Alabama has to beat Georgia by two or more points.

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Counter-Strike: $38k on MOUZ over Spirit in ESL playoffs

Leaning: MOUZ (42% implied)

One trade of about $38k backed MOUZ to beat Spirit in their best-of-three ESL Pro League playoff match. The market prices MOUZ at 42%, so this is a bet on the underdog.

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Top This Week

Spain politics: $44k on Feijóo as next Prime Minister

Leaning: Yes (79% implied)

One trade of $44k bet that Alberto Núñez Feijóo will be Spain's next Prime Minister. The market already gives him a 79% chance, and this market doesn't settle until August 2027.

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US midterms: $23k bets Democrats will control the Senate

Leaning: Yes (65% implied)

Four trades totaling about $23k bet that Democrats will control the US Senate after the 2026 midterms. The market puts that at 65%.

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US-Iran: $15k bets the ceasefire fails before October 15

Leaning: No (12% implied)

Four trades totaling about $15k bought No on the US-Iran ceasefire lasting through October 15. No is priced at 12%, which means the market sees about an 88% chance the ceasefire holds, so this is a contrarian bet that it breaks down.

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NFL: $32k on Raiders to cover against Patriots

Leaning: Raiders (51% implied)

One trade of about $32k took the Raiders on the Patriots -3.5 spread, priced at 51%. The bet wins unless the Patriots beat the Raiders by four or more points.

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NFL: $20k on the Rams to beat the Bills

Leaning: Rams (60% implied)

One trade of about $20k backed the Los Angeles Rams to beat the Buffalo Bills. The market makes the Rams favorites, at 60%.

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Today: $81k against Brentford at Aston Villa, plus Bayern and Porto spreads | PolySpotter