Soccer: smart money backs Atalanta to beat Venezia
Leaning: Yes (62% implied)
Four trades totaling about $10,100 went on Atalanta BC to win its match against Venezia FC today. We lean Atalanta to win, which the market prices at 62%.
View market →October 12, 2026
Smart money backs Atalanta today, fades Le Pen for 2027
Large wallets put more than $10,000 on Atalanta to beat Venezia today. This week's biggest flows went against Marine Le Pen in France and against a Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure, and toward JD Vance for 2028.
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French election: big money bets against Marine Le Pen
Leaning: No (55% implied)
Three trades totaling about $73,200 bet that Marine Le Pen will not win France's 2027 presidential election, the largest flow this week. We lean against Le Pen; a bet that she loses is priced at 55%.
View market →US 2028: sharps buy JD Vance for president
Leaning: Yes (21% implied)
Two trades totaling about $56,200 backed JD Vance to win the 2028 US presidential election. We lean Vance; the market gives him a 21% chance, so these buyers think that price is too low.
View market →Red Sea: $34.6K bet the Bab el-Mandeb Strait stays open
Leaning: No (85% implied)
A single trade of about $34,600 bet that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea shipping lane next to Yemen where the Houthis are active, will not be effectively closed by December 31. We lean that it stays open, which the market prices at 85%.
View market →Israel: $10K bet on Netanyahu as next prime minister
Leaning: Yes (37% implied)
A single $10,000 trade backed Benjamin Netanyahu to be Israel's prime minister after the next election. We lean Netanyahu, whom the market gives a 37% chance.
View market →MLB Playoffs: $23.6K on the Under in Guardians vs. Rays
Leaning: Under (47% implied)
A single trade of about $23,600 bet that the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays score fewer than 6.5 runs combined. We lean Under, which the market prices at 47%, slightly below even odds.
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