Two European soccer matches settle today, and in both the smart money bet against the favorite to win. Further out, big bets landed on the NFL, the US-Iran nuclear talks, and Israel's next moves.
A single $25,800 bet in the Europa Conference League says AFC Ajax will not beat HNK Hajduk Split. That covers a draw or a Hajduk win. The 'Ajax won't win' side is priced at 42%, so the market still makes Ajax a slight favorite.
View market →One $14,941 trade in the UEFA Europa League bet that Olympique Lyonnais will not beat Crystal Palace. The 'Lyon won't win' side is priced at 60%, so this bet backs the market's existing view that a Lyon win is less likely than not.
View market →Five trades totaling $39,179 bet that a 2026 US-Iran deal will include a cap of 5% or less on uranium enrichment, lasting a year or more. That outcome is priced at just 14%, so these are contrarian bets on a strict nuclear limit.
View market →Four trades totaling $27,073 bet against Israeli military action in Syria by October 31, 2026. The 'no action' side is already priced at 78%, so the smart money agrees with the market that a strike this month is unlikely.
View market →Four trades totaling $22,933 bet that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be the next leader on this list to leave power before 2027. That side is priced at 68%, so the bets back his staying in office for now.
View market →One wallet put $210,222 on the Denver Broncos to beat the Seattle Seahawks, the biggest single bet in this digest. The market gives Denver a 42% chance, so this is a large bet on the underdog.
View market →Three trades totaling $10,592 backed the Dallas Cowboys over the Green Bay Packers. This pick has the highest score in the digest. Dallas is priced at 47%, close to a coin flip, and the smart money is betting the Cowboys win.
View market →