Large, informed-looking bets landed on three events resolving today and on several bigger stories this week. Here is where the money went and which side we lean.
Two trades worth about $32.6k backed AC Monza to beat Cagliari Calcio. That side is priced at 40%, so the bettors are taking the underdog, and we lean Monza to win.
View market →One trade of about $11.1k at the European Open backed Alex Michelsen to beat Andrea Guerrieri. Michelsen is a heavy favorite at 81%, and we lean Michelsen.
View market →Three trades worth about $27.2k backed magic to beat PARIVISION in a best-of-three at the 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs. magic is priced at only 39%, so this is an underdog bet, and we lean magic.
View market →Five trades worth about $39.2k backed a US-Iran deal in 2026 that includes a cap of 5% or less on uranium enrichment lasting at least a year. That outcome is priced at just 14%, so this is a longshot, and we lean Yes, the cap makes it into a deal.
View market →Four trades worth about $27.1k bet that Israel will not take military action against Syria by October 31, 2026. The no-action side is priced at 78%, and we lean no Israeli military action by the deadline.
View market →Five trades worth about $27.0k bet that no new White House Press Secretary will be announced by November 30, 2026. That side is priced at 42%, so the bettors are going against the market favorite, and we lean no announcement by the deadline.
View market →Three trades worth about $10.1k bet against a three-part combo that needs all of these to happen: Flávio Bolsonaro wins in Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot becomes Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate. The No side is priced at 64%, and we lean against the combo.
View market →Eight trades worth about $154.1k, the biggest flow in this digest, bet that the Commanders and 49ers score fewer than 52.5 points combined. The Under is priced at 53%, and we lean Under.
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