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October 25, 2026

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid, five NFL games, and a Serbian election: where the big bets landed

Six markets resolve today, including Barcelona vs. Real Madrid in La Liga and a slate of NFL games, plus five longer-dated bets worth watching this week. Here is where the large wallets put their money and which side we lean.

Resolving Today

Serbia election: big bet against Student List winning most seats

Leaning: No (62% implied)

A single $14.4k trade bet that the Student List will NOT win the most seats in Serbia's 2026 parliamentary election. The No side is priced at 62%, and we lean No with the smart money.

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La Liga: $183k backs Barcelona over Real Madrid

Leaning: Yes (60% implied)

Six trades totaling about $183k bet on FC Barcelona to beat Real Madrid today. A Barcelona win is priced at 60%, and we lean Barcelona.

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Premier League: sharps back Man United vs. Bournemouth

Leaning: Yes (42% implied)

Four trades worth about $13.9k bet on Manchester United to beat AFC Bournemouth. A United win is priced at only 42%, so this is a value bet on the home side, and we lean United.

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NFL: $208k bet on Panthers over Buccaneers

Leaning: Panthers (59% implied)

This is the highest-scoring signal of the day: six trades totaling about $208k on the Carolina Panthers to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Panthers are priced at 59%, and we lean Panthers.

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NFL: Steelers vs. Saints total bet to go Under 44.5

Leaning: Under (51% implied)

Four trades worth about $95.6k bet that the Steelers and Saints combine for fewer than 44.5 points. The Under is priced at 51%, close to a coin flip, and we lean Under.

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NFL: ten trades back Bengals over Ravens

Leaning: Bengals (55% implied)

Ten separate trades totaling about $92.3k bet on the Cincinnati Bengals to beat the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals are priced at 55%, and we lean Bengals.

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Top This Week

Nevada governor race: $32k on a Democratic win

Leaning: Yes (64% implied)

Two trades totaling about $32k bet that Democrats win the 2026 Nevada governor race. A Democratic win is priced at 64%, and we lean Democrats.

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US-Iran: bet the blockade stays past October 31

Leaning: No (79% implied)

A single $23.5k trade bet that the US will NOT announce an end to its Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026. The No side is priced at 79%, and we lean No: the blockade stays in place through the deadline.

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US midterms: $12k bets against a Democratic sweep

Leaning: No (34% implied)

A single $12.3k trade bet against Democrats winning both the Senate and the House in the 2026 midterms. The No side is priced at 34%, so the market still favors a sweep, but we lean with the contrarian No.

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Soccer: smart money backs Harry Kane for Ballon d'Or

Leaning: Yes (48% implied)

Six trades totaling about $12.1k bet that Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or. A Kane win is priced at 48%, and we lean Kane.

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Finance: $20.8k says Anthropic IPOs by end of 2026

Leaning: Yes (74% implied)

A single $20.8k trade bet that AI company Anthropic goes public by December 31, 2026. An IPO by that date is priced at 74%, and we lean Yes.

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Barcelona vs. Real Madrid, five NFL games, and a Serbian election: where the big bets landed | PolySpotter