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November 1, 2026

Smart money today: Liverpool vs Arsenal goals, a Senate bet, and more

Five events resolve today, led by sizable bets on Premier League and international cricket matches. Over the week, the biggest flow went into US elections, including a $100K bet on Senate control.

Resolving Today

Cricket: smart money backs Afghanistan over Zimbabwe

Leaning: Afghanistan (67% implied)

About $35.8K across 10 trades went into the Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe match in the UAE T20s. The money backs Afghanistan to win, priced at 67% implied.

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Premier League: Liverpool vs Arsenal backed for goals

Leaning: Over (51% implied)

Three trades totaling about $33.9K bet on Over 2.5 goals in Liverpool vs Arsenal. The Over is priced at 51% implied, so this is a near coin-flip line drawing heavy money.

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Soccer: sharps expect few goals in Juventus vs Napoli

Leaning: Under (53% implied)

Five trades worth about $14.6K backed Under 2.5 goals in Juventus vs Napoli. The Under is priced at 53% implied.

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NHL: a $13.7K bet on the Oilers over the Rangers

Leaning: Oilers (46% implied)

One trade of about $13.7K backed the Edmonton Oilers to beat the New York Rangers. The Oilers are slight underdogs at 46% implied, so this bet goes against the market's favorite.

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La Liga: big bet on Real Madrid vs Real Racing Club

Leaning: Yes (80% implied)

A single trade of about $10.9K backed Real Madrid to beat Real Racing Club. Real Madrid winning is priced at 80% implied, so this is a large bet on a heavy favorite.

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Top This Week

2028 US election: $250K bet on JD Vance winning

Leaning: Yes (20% implied)

Seven trades totaling about $250K backed JD Vance to win the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market puts his chances at 20% implied, so these buyers think he is undervalued.

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US Senate: $100K bet against Democratic control

Leaning: No (56% implied)

One trade of about $100K bet that Democrats will NOT control the US Senate after the 2026 midterms. That outcome is priced at 56% implied, and this was the highest-scoring bet of the week.

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Texas Senate race: $39K bet against a Republican win

Leaning: No (70% implied)

A single trade of about $39.3K bet that Republicans will NOT win the 2026 Texas Senate race. The 'Republicans don't win' side is priced at 70% implied.

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Ohio governor race: money bets against a Republican win

Leaning: No (82% implied)

Two trades totaling about $15.5K bet that Republicans will NOT win the 2026 Ohio governor race. The 'Republicans don't win' side is priced at 82% implied.

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Israel-Iran ceasefire: money bets it holds through Nov 22

Leaning: Yes (73% implied)

Six trades totaling about $14.4K bet that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran will last through November 22. Holding is priced at 73% implied.

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Smart money today: Liverpool vs Arsenal goals, a Senate bet, and more | PolySpotter