HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul
18 signals across 3 markets · $124,722 tracked · resolves Jun 28, 2026
This event tracks the HSBC Championships tennis match between Francisco Cerundolo and Tommy Paul, with prediction market odds on which player advances. PolySpotter has tracked $12,500 in smart money activity for this matchup, including a recent signal showing a 95% winner backing Paul.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp cluster on underdog
Seven wallets, including several profitable high-volume sports traders and one 78% winner, clustered on Francisco Cerundolo with a meaningful price move.
$14,350Score: 17.4 - Sharp bettor on underdog
Surface because one wallet in the Paul cluster has a 96% record with positive P&L, though the market has since moved sharply against the entry.
$4,866Score: 17.0 - 97% win-rate sports sharp
Elite sports bettor with a 97% documented win rate and $2.45M profit bought Cerundolo despite the market favoring Paul.
$4,900Wallet win rate: 97%Score: 11.4 - 97% win-rate sports sharp
Elite sports bettor with a 97% documented win rate and $2.45M profit bought Cerundolo despite the market favoring Paul.
$5,000Wallet win rate: 97%Score: 11.4 - Profitable serial sports bettor
Surfacing because a highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought Cerundolo alongside one-sided group flow, a volume spike, and rapid price movement.
$1,571Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 11.0 - 97% win-rate sports sharp
Elite sports bettor with a 97% documented win rate and $2.45M profit bought Cerundolo despite the market favoring Paul.
$9,000Wallet win rate: 97%Score: 10.6 - Profitable trader joins Cerundolo cluster
A profitable high-volume sports bettor sold Tommy Paul, effectively buying Cerundolo, alongside six wallets taking the same side during a pre-event volume spike.
$1,142Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 10.0 - 92% sharp sports bettor
Elite profitable sports bettor with a 92% record bought $3,000 of Over in a relatively thin tennis totals market.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 10.0 - 99% tennis sharp buying Paul
Elite sports wallet with a 99% resolved win rate and $305k profit bought Tommy Paul at 86%, moving the market to 92%.
$6,020Wallet win rate: 99%Score: 9.4 - 95% winner backs Paul
Elite sports bettor with a 95% resolved win record and $6.49M profit bought $12.5k of Tommy Paul at 67¢.
$12,500Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 9.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xcd65c3…ee96$68,100 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 95% wins
- 0x5f659b…2036$18,900 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 97% wins
- 0x8bfee7…2d74$6,020 · 1 market · 1 alert · 99% wins
- 0x6157d5…9fb4$3,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
- 0x479e33…91c3$2,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
- 0x469861…d7a5$2,112 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x076daa…8d4c$1,571 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0x54bab0…04e4$1,160 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xd0ac6e…7dee$1,142 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
- 0xa5eb75…93bf$1,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
FAQs
What are the Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul odds on Polymarket?
The market prices reflect the probability that either Francisco Cerundolo or Tommy Paul advances in the HSBC Championships match. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart money activity so you can see how informed traders are positioning.
What is the smart money saying about Cerundolo vs Paul?
PolySpotter has tracked $12,500 in smart money across this event. The latest highlighted signal shows a 95% winner backing Tommy Paul, suggesting notable sharp interest on Paul.
What outcomes are being traded for this event?
This event covers the match winner: Francisco Cerundolo to advance or Tommy Paul to advance. The market resolves based on which player wins the match and moves on.
When does the Cerundolo vs Paul market resolve?
The match was originally scheduled for June 21, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The market is expected to resolve once a winner is determined, with a listed resolution deadline of June 28, 2026.
What happens if the Cerundolo vs Paul match is canceled or delayed?
If the match is canceled, not played at all, ends without a winner, or is delayed more than 7 days from the scheduled start without a winner determined, the market follows Polymarket’s stated resolution rules.