Madrid Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
10 signals across 1 market · $51,637 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This Madrid Open hub tracks prediction-market odds for Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar, with the market pricing which player advances. PolySpotter has tracked $51,637 in smart money across 10 signals, including sharp-wallet clusters, aligned bettors, and high win-rate sports traders watching for mispricing.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp cluster chasing mispricing
Six wallets piled into Daniel Merida Aguilar for $25.6k during a 91.7x volume spike, including one elite high-volume winner and another 94% win-rate bettor buying before the price jumped from roughly 50¢ to 78¢.
$25,614Score: 15.3 - 96% win-rate sports sharp
A proven sharp sports bettor with a 96% win rate bought Marco Trungelliti at 64¢ before a huge move to 96%, making this a strong signal worth surfacing despite the small size.
$989Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 12.8 - 3 sharp wallets aligned
Three profitable, high-volume sports bettors all bought Marco Trungelliti around 41-42¢, creating coordinated one-sided flow from wallets with strong long-term records.
$5,853Score: 12.1 - 87% win-rate sports bettor
A proven sharp sports bettor with an 87% win rate bought into a fast-moving tennis market before a major repricing from 87% to 96%.
$1,620Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 9.8 - 83% win-rate sports bettor
A proven 83% win-rate serial cross-market bettor bought Marco Trungelliti before a sharp 23-point move in a match market seeing an 88.7x volume spike.
$2,990Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 8.8 - Profitable new wallet cluster
A fast-ramping 11-day-old wallet with early profits joined two other wallets buying the same side during a major pre-match volume surge, suggesting coordinated conviction worth watching.
$5,372Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 8.6 - Sharp serial sports bettor
A high-volume serial sports trader with a 73% win rate and $6.4M profit bought Marco during a major pre-match volume spike, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the market being fairly liquid.
$2,746Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 6.7 - 73% winner buying dip
A proven high-volume sports trader with a 73% win rate and $6.4M profit bought Marco just before a sharp selloff during a pre-match volume surge, making this a credible sharp entry worth watching.
$3,398Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 5.2 - Profitable new sports wallet
A 12-day-old wallet that has already made 13 notable bets, is profitable early, and is taking another meaningful position on a liquid tennis market suggests a new bettor worth tracking.
$1,482Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 5.0 - Sharp sports bettor buying underdog
A highly profitable sports trader with 1,144 resolved bets and $1.41M P&L is buying a modest underdog at 41¢, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite only one detection trigger.
$1,572Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xfe787d…0319$6,145 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xf1bf65…492e$5,372 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xbdb0e4…f8ba$2,990 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
- 0xbb7c75…82f2$1,620 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
- 0x9f1380…e0fd$1,572 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0xe9d31c…079f$1,482 · 1 market · 1 alert · 84% wins
- 0x51eb09…6bfa$989 · 1 market · 1 alert · 95% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Trungelliti vs Merida Aguilar?
The event market prices the chance that Marco Trungelliti or Daniel Merida Aguilar advances in their Madrid Open match. Check the live market on PolySpotter for the latest odds and price movement.
What is the smart money doing on this match?
PolySpotter has tracked 10 smart money signals totaling $51,637, including a sharp cluster chasing a possible mispricing, three sharp wallets aligned, and activity from sports bettors with 96%, 87%, and 83% win-rate histories.
Is this a Marco Trungelliti market or a Daniel Merida Aguilar market?
It covers the full match outcome. The market resolves based on which player advances: Marco Trungelliti or Daniel Merida Aguilar.
When does the Trungelliti vs Merida Aguilar market resolve?
The match was scheduled for April 23, 2026, and the event is listed to resolve by April 30, 2026. If the match is canceled, tied, or delayed beyond the market rules, resolution follows Polymarket’s stated terms.
Why use PolySpotter for this Madrid Open prediction market?
PolySpotter highlights wallet-level activity behind the odds, so you can see when sharp bettors, high win-rate sports traders, and clustered wallets move into the market.