Bitcoin above ___ on May 4?
6 signals across 2 markets · $28,300 tracked · resolves May 4, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Bitcoin will close above key May 4 price levels, including $78,000 and $80,000, using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data at noon ET. PolySpotter has tracked $28,300 in smart money activity and 6 signals, including repeat NO buying from timer-style traders and a recent flip toward YES from a high-win-rate bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial last-minute BTC timer
High-conviction near-resolution Bitcoin trade led by a profitable serial timer and reinforced by three wallets buying Yes minutes before settlement.
$4,336Score: 18.7 - Serial timer buying NO
High-score alert from a profitable serial near-resolution trader whose NO buys preceded a sharp move from 57¢ to 92¢ with supporting volume and price-impact signals.
$8,155Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 12.0 - Profitable serial timer buys NO
Profitable serial timer placed a concentrated $6.2k late bet on No ahead of resolution, backed by a volume spike and sharp market movement.
$6,178Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 7.8 - BTC momentum bettor
Surfacing due to strong Bitcoin-market momentum: a profitable high-volume wallet bought Yes amid a 151x volume spike and 22-point price move, with related positions across three markets.
$4,206Wallet win rate: 49%Score: 6.9 - 92% winner flips toward Yes
A very high-win-rate serial cross-market trader exited a No position, effectively taking the Yes side at about 11¢ as No price fell quickly.
$1,554Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 6.3 - Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$3,871Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x6e1d50…d0fa$12,026 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 60% wins
- 0x4ee29e…46e1$6,178 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
- 0xe9c631…95c9$4,206 · 1 market · 1 alert · 49% wins
- 0x66ad42…cc4e$1,554 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
FAQs
What are the Bitcoin May 4 prediction market odds?
This event groups Bitcoin May 4 markets for whether BTC finishes above $78,000 and $80,000 at the resolution time. The live odds on each child market reflect traders’ current implied probability for those price levels.
What is smart money doing in this Bitcoin event?
PolySpotter has tracked $28,300 in smart money volume across 6 signals. Recent alerts include serial last-minute BTC timer activity, repeat NO buying from profitable timer-style traders, BTC momentum betting, and a 92% winner flipping toward YES.
How does this Polymarket event resolve?
The markets resolve based on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle for 12:00 PM ET on May 4. If the final close is higher than a market’s strike price, that market resolves YES; otherwise it resolves NO.
Which Bitcoin price levels are being traded?
The event currently includes markets on whether Bitcoin will be above $78,000 and above $80,000 on May 4. Each strike trades separately, but the hub shows the broader picture across the event.
Why follow this event on PolySpotter?
PolySpotter highlights smart money alerts behind the odds, helping you see whether experienced or high-performing wallets are leaning YES or NO across the Bitcoin May 4 strikes.