Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
11 signals across 2 markets · $127,399 tracked · resolves Oct 5, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks outcomes for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election first round. Its listed market asks whether Lula will receive the most valid votes, and a profitable serial bettor has recently added to Yes.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 7-wallet funded Yes cluster
Seven linked wallets committed $13,299 to Yes, including a bettor with a strong record relative to typical entry odds, amid a sharp rise in market odds.
$13,299Score: 11.0 - Three-wallet cluster with a proven sharp
Three wallets added to Yes positions, including a bettor with a 94% win rate across 154 resolved positions, making the coordinated political-election buying notable despite the long time to resolution.
$10,348Score: 6.7 - Three-wallet No cluster with proven winner
Three wallets concentrated nearly $10,000 on No, including a bettor with a 75% win rate, alongside a sharp market move toward No.
$9,935Score: 6.1 - High-volume trader adding to No
A highly active, profitable trader is adding a substantial No position, though their 96% win rate is tempered by an average winning entry price of 96%.
$9,278Wallet win rate: 96%Score: 5.7 - High-volume trader adding to No
A highly active, profitable trader is adding a substantial No position, though their 96% win rate is tempered by an average winning entry price of 96%.
$14,997Wallet win rate: 96%Score: 5.1 - New whale adding to Lula Yes
A newly created wallet added $55.6K to an already substantial Lula Yes position during a 108x market-volume spike, showing notable concentrated conviction despite no resolved track record.
$55,613Score: 4.8 - Proven 81% winner buys Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 1,170 resolved positions and an 81% win rate is buying Yes, supported by extensive cross-market activity.
$1,260Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 4.7 - Profitable serial bettor adds to Yes
A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position in a major political market.
$3,669Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.3 - Profitable serial bettor adds to Yes
A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position in a major political market.
$4,211Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0 - Profitable bettor scaling Yes position
A proven bettor with 77% wins across 314 resolved trades and $30,170 in profit is adding nearly $3,000 to an existing Yes position.
$2,991Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 3.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0xa26fcc…91e4$55,613 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0xa52b78…9480$24,275 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 96% wins
- 0x88c491…129a$7,880 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 90% wins
- 0x51ba95…3ca5$2,991 · 1 market · 1 alert · 77% wins
- 0xde5868…f55c$1,799 · 1 market · 1 alert · 95% wins
- 0x33c96d…6f9a$1,260 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Brazil’s 2026 first-round election?
The event page tracks the available market on whether Lula will win the most votes. Check the live market for current odds, which can change as traders place bets.
What is the smart money doing in this event?
PolySpotter has reported one smart money signal: a profitable serial bettor added to Yes on the market asking whether Lula will win the most votes.
What does the Brazil first-round winner market resolve on?
The listed market resolves according to whether Lula receives the most valid votes in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election.
When does the Brazil 2026 election market resolve?
Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for October 4, 2026. The market is scheduled to resolve by October 5, 2026, at 03:59 UTC.