Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
18 signals across 1 market · $41,751 tracked · resolves May 15, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether a laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection is reported anywhere in U.S. territory by May 15, 2026. Traders are pricing a simple Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter monitoring smart-money activity and wallet signals, including a recent breakout wallet alert.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 4-wallet Yes momentum
Four wallets all flipped bullish on Yes while the market repriced sharply from around 55¢ to 92¢, suggesting coordinated momentum around a possible confirmed-case update.
$5,646Score: 9.0 - 4-wallet funded cluster
Four linked wallets from a previously seen funder are taking the contrarian No side after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting coordinated conviction despite this wallet's weak resolved win rate.
$1,044Wallet win rate: 40%Score: 7.0 - 4-wallet funded Yes cluster
A 4-wallet funded cluster is collectively positioned for Yes, and this trade converts from selling No at 81¢ into buying Yes at 19¢ amid a sharp move against No.
$2,112Wallet win rate: 40%Score: 7.0 - 4-wallet funded cluster
A 4-wallet linked cluster from a previously seen funder is collectively positioned for Yes, though this specific wallet's resolved win rate is weak.
$1,308Wallet win rate: 40%Score: 7.0 - New wallet chasing outbreak news
A brand-new wallet with repeated large flagged bets is buying Yes into a sharp upward move on a time-sensitive public-health market.
$1,185Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 6.8 - New wallet caught breakout
Brand-new wallet has repeatedly placed sizable bets and caught a quick move from 47¢ to 62¢ in an active health-news market.
$1,154Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 6.8 - 78% winner fading spike
Sharp profitable wallet is fading a major Yes spike by selling Yes at 84¢, equivalent to buying No at 16¢.
$1,087Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 5.3 - Profitable serial trader flips Yes
A very active cross-market trader with $528k lifetime profit flipped from a prior No position into a $3.1k Yes buy during a sharp upward move.
$3,137Wallet win rate: 59%Score: 3.3 - Profitable serial trader flips Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader flipped from a prior No position into Yes during a fast upward move, though the trade size is modest relative to market volume.
$1,780Wallet win rate: 59%Score: 3.3 - Profitable whale flipped Yes
Large Yes buy from a highly active profitable cross-market trader who appears to have flipped from a prior No position while moving the market upward.
$8,633Wallet win rate: 59%Score: 3.3
Top wallets in this event
- 0x44c1df…ebc1$15,916 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 59% wins
- 0xa8948e…5324$6,072 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 95% wins
- 0xd43dd8…8a2a$4,465 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 40% wins
- 0x2b670a…b814$2,339 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 74% wins
- 0xf0d5eb…c665$2,185 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 91% wins
- 0x8597ca…daee$1,772 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0x0a543b…4a03$1,167 · 1 market · 1 alert · 95% wins
- 0x092838…c61a$1,103 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0x6db983…4ab5$1,087 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a confirmed Hantavirus case in the US by May 15?
The live odds come from the Polymarket Yes/No market for this event. PolySpotter tracks how those odds move over time and highlights notable smart-money signals behind the market.
What does this Hantavirus prediction market resolve on?
It resolves to Yes if a laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection in U.S. territory is officially reported between market creation and May 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No.
What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,154 in smart-money activity across this event and one recent signal, including a headline noting a new wallet caught a breakout.
Where will confirmation of a US Hantavirus case come from?
The market primarily relies on official government information, such as CDC reporting, to determine whether a qualifying confirmed case occurred.
Is this page about one market or the whole event?
This event currently contains one child market: whether there will be a confirmed case of hantavirus in the United States by May 15. The hub page summarizes the market odds, smart-money signals, and resolution criteria in one place.