Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins
10 signals across 2 markets · $96,101 tracked · resolves May 12, 2026
The Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins event on Polymarket covers both the game winner and the over/under 8.5 total, giving traders multiple ways to price the matchup. PolySpotter is tracking $96,101 in smart money across 10 signals, with recent activity showing both Marlins buying from an 89% winner and Orioles support from profitable clusters and sharp sports bettors.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 89% winner buying Marlins
Strong sports sharp with an 89% resolved win rate, large lifetime profit, and linked-wallet corroboration is buying $12k of Miami at 56¢.
$12,000Wallet win rate: 97%Score: 14.4 - Profitable cluster backing Orioles
Three wallets put $58.5k on the Orioles amid a 105x volume spike, with two profitable bettors in the cluster including one with a 98% record.
$58,487Score: 9.1 - Sharp sports bettor on Orioles
Sharp sports bettor with an 83% resolved win rate and strong cross-market history bought Baltimore at 51%, ahead of a move to 62%.
$1,930Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 8.0 - 98% win-rate sports sharp
Surface: an exceptionally high-performing sports bettor with 98% resolved win rate is buying Orioles at 43¢ despite Miami favored.
$2,298Wallet win rate: 98%Score: 8.0 - 85% winner backs Orioles
Proven sharp sports bettor with an 85% win rate and nearly $494k profit bought $5.2k of Orioles amid a major pre-game volume spike.
$5,160Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 8.0 - 6-hour whale, 2-for-2 start
A 6-hour-old wallet with repeat large bets and a profitable 2-for-2 start bought $4.6k of Miami at 50¢ in a liquid MLB market.
$4,587Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 8.0 - Profitable serial sports sharp
A highly profitable serial sports trader bought Baltimore at 83¢ ahead of a sharp move to 100%, backed by a major volume spike and price impact.
$1,117Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 8.0 - Profitable trio buying underdog
Three profitable wallets are buying the Marlins together after a sharp move, including one wallet up over $3M lifetime, and current price is below two of their entries.
$4,052Score: 5.7 - Profitable serial MLB bettor
Profitable high-volume serial trader bought nearly $5k of Miami at 55¢, making this a reasonable copy-trade candidate despite a modest composite score.
$4,952Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 3.0 - Serial sports bettor up $52K
Profitable serial cross-market sports bettor bought Over at 56¢ before a sharp move to 80¢, though the current price may be too high to chase.
$1,518Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbd14b6…d62a$12,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 97% wins
- 0x16bb99…8492$5,160 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0xd48a81…6e90$4,952 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0xb20b80…131c$4,587 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
- 0xc33a10…3da3$2,298 · 1 market · 1 alert · 98% wins
- 0x1ef5bc…dc05$1,930 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
- 0xbca08c…9705$1,518 · 1 market · 1 alert · 61% wins
- 0x949542…9a27$1,117 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
FAQs
What are the Orioles vs Marlins prediction market odds?
This event includes markets for the Orioles to win, the Marlins to win, and the game total over/under 8.5. PolySpotter tracks how those odds move over time alongside smart money activity from historically profitable traders.
Who is the smart money backing in Orioles vs Marlins?
Recent signals are mixed but active: an 89% winner has been buying Marlins, while a profitable cluster, an 85% winner, and sharp sports bettors have backed the Orioles. That makes this a useful market to monitor for late line movement.
Is there an Orioles vs Marlins over/under market?
Yes. In addition to the moneyline-style winner market, this event includes a Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins over/under 8.5 market for the total runs scored in the game.
How much smart money is tracked on this event?
PolySpotter is tracking $96,101 in smart money across 10 signals for the Orioles vs Marlins event, including activity from high win-rate and profitable sports traders.
When does the Orioles vs Marlins market resolve?
The market is scheduled around the May 5 game at 6:40 PM ET and resolves after the game is completed. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until it is played; if it is canceled with no makeup or ends in a tie, it resolves 50-50.