Noche UFC: Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Card)
9 signals across 2 markets · $34,748 tracked · resolves Sep 13, 2026
Track Polymarket prediction-market odds for the Noche UFC featherweight main-card fight between Tommy McMillen and Marwan Rahiki. PolySpotter highlights live market activity, including a profitable serial trader backing the underdog, with the market resolving on the officially declared fight result.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Four-wallet McMillen conviction cluster
Four wallets committed $21.4K to Tommy McMillen amid a massive volume spike, though the flow adds to existing positions and the market has moved sharply against them.
$21,395Score: 7.3 - Serial trader scales into Tommy
A serial cross-market bettor added $2,000 to an existing Tommy McMillen position at 79¢ amid a 1,307x volume spike and 18-point price surge, though the wallet's track record does not show a clear edge over its average winning price.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 5.8 - Sharp bettor scaling into Rahiki
A proven sports bettor with an 87% win rate and strong historical edge is adding to a concentrated Marwan Rahiki position at 41¢.
$1,111Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 4.9 - New bettor scaling into No
A four-hour-old repeat bettor with early profits is scaling into No on a thin market, though the track record is still small.
$2,959Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 4.5 - Serial trader scaling into Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader added to a large Yes position at 33¢ in a thin market that has since repriced to 62¢.
$1,083Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.3 - Sharp bettor bought Tommy early
A proven bettor with an 86% win rate bought Tommy McMillen at 66¢ amid an extreme volume spike and sharp upward price move, though they already held the position.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 4.0 - Proven sharp adds to Tommy McMillen
A proven bettor with an 81% win rate and substantial historical edge added to Tommy McMillen amid an extreme volume spike and sharp price move.
$1,237Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 4.0 - Profitable bettor scales into Tommy McMillen
A profitable bettor with 79 resolved trades added to a large existing Tommy McMillen position during an extreme volume spike, though the market has since moved to 100%.
$1,038Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 3.9 - Profitable serial trader backs underdog
A highly experienced, profitable serial trader made a concentrated $2,926 underdog bet in a very thin market, though the trade lacks near-resolution or coordinated-flow confirmation.
$2,926Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 3.4
Top wallets in this event
- 0x4fb52d…aced$2,959 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x076daa…8d4c$2,926 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xe337f5…4ad6$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0x68b695…99b4$1,237 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
- 0xeaef9f…2665$1,111 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
- 0x17b8dd…d5d1$1,083 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0x151e09…cede$1,038 · 1 market · 1 alert · 76% wins
- 0xf38d09…eb9a$1,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki?
The Polymarket market trades the chances of Tommy McMillen or Marwan Rahiki winning. Check the live event page for current prices, implied probabilities, and changes in market sentiment.
What is the smart money doing in this UFC prediction market?
PolySpotter has detected one smart-money signal: a profitable serial trader backed the underdog in the Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki market.
When will the Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve after the official fight result, with resolution expected by September 13, 2026. A draw, technical draw, No Contest, cancellation, or qualifying postponement resolves the market 50-50.
What outcomes are traded for this Noche UFC fight?
This event currently includes one market covering both possible winners: Tommy McMillen and Marwan Rahiki. The market also specifies a 50-50 outcome for certain non-standard results.