UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
9 signals across 1 market · $73,085 tracked · resolves May 17, 2026
This UFC Fight Night event tracks prediction-market odds for Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan in a light heavyweight prelim bout. Traders are pricing the fight winner, with the market resolving to either fighter or 50-50 if the bout ends in a draw, no contest, cancellation, or qualifying postponement. PolySpotter has tracked $34,751 in smart money activity, including a signal from a profitable serial sports bettor.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Hot new UFC bettor
A very new but profitable UFC bettor with a 7-0 resolved record is making another large Ivan Erslan buy amid a major pre-fight volume spike.
$4,920Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 11.1 - Profitable new UFC whale
A highly profitable 8-day-old wallet is making a repeat $6.1k UFC bet on Ivan Erslan alongside a major volume spike and price move.
$6,090Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 9.6 - 94% win-rate UFC sharp
Elite sports bettor with a 94% long-run win rate and $525k profit bought Ivan Erslan, making the wallet track record the key signal despite modest size.
$1,345Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 8.0 - Perfect-record UFC sharp
Elite sports bettor with a perfect 113/113 resolved record and $1.76M profit is buying Tuco Tokkos at 39¢.
$3,450Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 8.0 - Profitable serial sports bettor
Serial cross-market sports bettor with a strong 72% record and positive lifetime P&L placed a large $34.8k bet on Ivan Erslan.
$34,751Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 5.3 - 89% win-rate UFC sharp
A highly proven serial cross-market bettor with an 89% win rate and $1.5M lifetime profit is effectively buying Tuco Tokkos at 41¢.
$1,180Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 4.0 - 89% win-rate sports sharp
Surfaced because this is a proven sharp bettor with an 89% win rate and $1.5M lifetime profit buying Ivan Erslan, despite the trade being modest in a liquid market.
$1,240Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial sports bettor
Profitable serial sports bettor with a 61% record and +$54.7k lifetime P&L bought $3.5k of Tuco Tokkos at 41¢.
$3,487Wallet win rate: 47%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet with $3.0M lifetime P&L placed a sizable $16.6k buy on Ivan Erslan despite only a weak cross-market signal.
$16,621Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 2.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x8f8c0e…e275$34,751 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0x777d9f…5143$16,621 · 1 market · 1 alert · 60% wins
- 0x6b123a…d642$11,011 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 88% wins
- 0x113636…0c2e$3,487 · 1 market · 1 alert · 47% wins
- 0x8a3ab8…eb9a$3,450 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xed107a…d2e5$2,420 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 89% wins
- 0x602785…4320$1,345 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
FAQs
What are the Tokkos vs. Erslan prediction market odds?
The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders are pricing Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan to win the UFC Fight Night prelim. Odds can move quickly as fight news, weigh-ins, and smart money activity come in.
What is the smart money doing on Tokkos vs. Erslan?
PolySpotter has tracked $34,751 in smart money across this event, with one recent signal tied to a profitable serial sports bettor. That activity can help show where experienced prediction-market traders are taking a position.
How does the Tokkos vs. Erslan Polymarket resolve?
The market resolves to Tuco Tokkos or Ivan Erslan if that fighter is officially declared the winner. If the fight is a draw, technical draw, no contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, it resolves 50-50.
When will the Tokkos vs. Erslan market resolve?
The event is scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa on May 16, 2026, with the Polymarket event expected to resolve by May 17, 2026, after the official result is available.