US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
25 signals across 6 markets · $99,722 tracked · resolves Oct 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through September 30, with the market resolving Yes or No based on qualifying US military action against Iran. PolySpotter is currently tracking $1,886 in smart money and an alert showing a serial trader scaling into Yes.
Markets (6)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?19 signals · $72,099 tracked
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?1 signal · $14,770 tracked
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?2 signals · $3,858 tracked
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?1 signal · $3,517 tracked
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?1 signal · $3,303 tracked
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?1 signal · $2,175 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Seven-wallet linked cluster
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster and an experienced trader make this notable, though the No sale may be closing an existing position rather than opening a fresh Yes bet.
$3,303Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Seven-wallet linked No position
Seven wallets linked by a shared funder account for $7,453 in this No position, and the trader is adding to an existing $22,433 stake.
$7,453Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Seven-wallet cluster, established trader
Seven linked wallets and an established, profitable trader make this notable, though the alert is a trim of an existing No position rather than clear fresh Yes conviction.
$1,300Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Funded cluster adding to No
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster is associated with this No position, and the bettor is adding to a substantial existing position.
$2,647Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Funded cluster adding to No
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster is associated with this No position, and the bettor is adding to a substantial existing position.
$1,831Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Funded cluster adding to No
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster is associated with this No position, and the bettor is adding to a substantial existing position.
$2,282Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Seven-wallet linked No position
Seven wallets linked by a shared funder account for $7,453 in this No position, and the trader is adding to an existing $22,433 stake.
$3,521Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Funded cluster adding to No
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster is associated with this No position, and the bettor is adding to a substantial existing position.
$1,644Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Funded cluster adding to No
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster is associated with this No position, and the bettor is adding to a substantial existing position.
$1,961Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Seven-wallet cluster, established trader
Seven linked wallets and an established, profitable trader make this notable, though the alert is a trim of an existing No position rather than clear fresh Yes conviction.
$1,012Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe23495…304a$26,954 · 2 markets · 10 alerts · 66% wins
- 0x032eb1…2a9e$17,522 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 75% wins
- 0x524db8…4495$14,286 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 75% wins
- 0x277989…239a$4,902 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x60a92c…5a71$3,517 · 1 market · 1 alert · 49% wins
- 0x894df6…04e2$3,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x6404bf…f250$2,175 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0x69645c…ef53$1,886 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
FAQs
What are the US-Iran ceasefire odds on Polymarket?
The live Yes and No probabilities are shown on this event page and update as traders buy and sell positions on whether the ceasefire continues through September 30.
What is the US-Iran ceasefire prediction market measuring?
The market measures whether the United States takes a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran by the specified deadline.
What is smart money doing in the US-Iran ceasefire market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,886 in smart money across the event, including a recent alert showing a serial trader scaling into Yes.
When does the US-Iran ceasefire market resolve?
The child market concerns whether the ceasefire continues through September 30. The event metadata lists a resolution time of October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
What would make the US-Iran ceasefire market resolve No?
It resolves No if the United States initiates a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran by the stated deadline; otherwise, it resolves Yes.