Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste
16 signals across 2 markets · $175,995 tracked · resolves May 5, 2026
This Madrid Open event tracks prediction-market odds for Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste, including both the match winner market and the Sabalenka -1.5 / Baptiste +1.5 set handicap. PolySpotter has flagged $175,995 in smart money activity across 16 signals, with recent alerts showing sharp buying on Sabalenka alongside notable underdog interest in Baptiste.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp cluster bought Sabalenka
A large coordinated group piled into Sabalenka during a violent repricing, including several highly profitable serial traders who bought as low as 26-30¢ before the market moved to 73¢.
$56,136Score: 24.9 - 10-wallet tennis pile-in
A 10-wallet cluster piled into Hailey Baptiste for $75.5k during a massive volume spike and violent repricing to 100%, suggesting traders reacted quickly to decisive match information.
$75,544Score: 20.1 - Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste
LLM evaluation failed — kept for manual review.
$2,014Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 16.1 - Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste
LLM evaluation failed — kept for manual review.
$2,938Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 16.1 - Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste
LLM evaluation failed — kept for manual review.
$1,480Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 15.1 - 6-wallet Baptiste wave
Coordinated buying hit Hailey Baptiste across 6 wallets during a huge volume spike, and this wallet joined by effectively buying Baptiste at 60¢ before the market moved to 74¢.
$3,020Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 12.7 - 91% win-rate sharp bettor
A highly profitable 91% win-rate trader joined a 6-wallet one-sided surge into Hailey Baptiste during a major volume spike, making this a notable sharp-money signal despite the price reversing after entry.
$3,344Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 12.6 - 6-wallet dogpile on underdog
A proven high-volume sports trader joined a 6-wallet one-sided surge into Hailey Baptiste during a major volume spike, suggesting a thesis worth watching despite the market moving sharply against that entry afterward.
$5,000Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 11.6 - 97% winner in 6-wallet push
A proven sharp sports trader with a 97% win rate joined a 6-wallet one-sided push that moved Sabalenka up sharply during a major pre-match volume spike.
$2,700Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 10.7 - 6-wallet Sabalenka surge
A repeat new wallet joined a 6-wallet one-sided surge into Sabalenka at 45¢ before the market ripped to 78%, signaling strong coordinated conviction and excellent entry timing.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 98%Score: 10.2
Top wallets in this event
- 0x769056…74e1$8,900 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0x56c9fb…0d9e$6,282 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x842ac9…7422$6,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 56% wins
- 0x88d17a…18da$5,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
- 0x50ecc3…c1f5$4,500 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 65% wins
- 0x469861…d7a5$2,700 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x334932…c0b8$2,450 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x535c23…96ba$2,014 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0x9b2b6d…5752$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 53% wins
- 0x7d4d0b…8525$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 98% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Sabalenka vs Baptiste?
This event hub tracks the live prediction-market pricing for the Sabalenka vs Baptiste match winner market, plus the related set handicap market. Check the current market prices to see how traders are pricing Sabalenka advancing versus a Baptiste upset.
What is smart money doing on Sabalenka vs Baptiste?
PolySpotter has tracked 16 smart money signals and $175,995 across this event. Recent alerts include a sharp cluster buying Sabalenka, a 10-wallet tennis pile-in, and a 91% win-rate sharp bettor, while there have also been waves of activity on Baptiste and the underdog side.
Does this event include the set handicap market?
Yes. In addition to the main match winner market, this event includes the set handicap market: Sabalenka -1.5 sets versus Baptiste +1.5 sets, giving traders a way to bet on whether Sabalenka wins in straight sets or Baptiste keeps it closer.
When does the Sabalenka vs Baptiste market resolve?
The match was originally scheduled for April 28, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, and the event is expected to resolve by May 5, 2026. The market resolves based on which player advances, unless the match is canceled, tied, or delayed beyond the stated resolution rules.