Part of: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
This prediction market covers the Counter-Strike 2 best-of-three match between TheMongolz and Team Falcons in Round 4 of the PGL Astana Group Stage. It resolves to the team that wins the match, with resolution expected by May 12, 2026; PolySpotter is tracking $3,488 in smart money and 1 signal, including sharp activity around Falcons and underdog flow.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between TheMongolz and Team Falcons in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 12 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against TheMongolz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
19 smart money signals detected, totaling $92,460.
Categories: Esports, counter strike 2, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
Profitable esports power bettor
A highly experienced and profitable serial cross-market trader bought Team Falcons despite only a weak composite signal.
- This bettor is up $2.25M lifetime across more than $176M traded.
- They have a huge sample of 27,194 resolved bets and win 55% despite frequent activity.
- They bought Team Falcons at 80¢, showing conviction even though the market has slipped to 76¢.
$3,488 on Team Falcons | Wallet win rate: 55%
86% winning esports whale
Sharp high-volume cross-market bettor with an 86% record and $5.55M profit bought Team Falcons at 72¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $5.55M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.1M placed across 225 events.
- Entry at 72¢ is below the current 74% market price, suggesting they caught value on Team Falcons.
$2,344 on Team Falcons | Wallet win rate: 86%
New profitable esports bettor
A brand-new wallet is repeatedly making sizeable esports bets and is already profitable, with this Team Falcons buy coinciding with a sharp pre-event volume spike.
- This wallet is less than 3 hours old but has already placed nearly $3k in flagged bets across 2 positions.
- Early results are positive: 2 wins from 2 resolved bets and $623 profit on $3,911 invested.
- The market saw a 27x pre-event volume spike, suggesting broader momentum behind this matchup.
$1,304 on Team Falcons | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp cluster backs underdog
Five wallets put $14.4k on TheMongolz during a sharp pre-match volume spike, including a newly active profitable wallet and a strong 80% winner with six-figure profits.
- Five wallets are all backing TheMongolz, putting $14.4k on the same side in a short window.
- One bettor wins 80% of their trades and is up $224.9k lifetime, while another new wallet is already up $10.2k.
- TheMongolz are priced around 34¢, so this cluster is taking the underdog at roughly a 3x payout.
$14,405 on TheMongolz
Profitable serial esports trader
Profitable high-volume serial trader bought $10.3K of Team Falcons amid a 42x pre-event volume spike, though the price has since moved against them.
- This bettor is up $59K across 134 resolved bets and has traded over $1.8M in volume.
- They put $10.3K on Team Falcons at 72¢, showing meaningful conviction.
- Market volume is running 42x above normal ahead of the match.
$10,292 on Team Falcons | Wallet win rate: 58%
Serial trader joins Falcons flow
High composite alert from a very active serial cross-market trader joining one-sided Team Falcons flow during a major pre-event volume spike, though the wallet's lifetime P&L is negative.
- A highly active bettor with 1,548 resolved trades is buying Team Falcons at 65¢.
- Three wallets bought the same side for about $9.5K total, suggesting coordinated one-way flow.
- Volume spiked 62x above normal before the match, adding momentum to the Falcons move.
$2,938 on Team Falcons | Wallet win rate: 60%
Elite 93% esports sharp
Elite esports bettor with a 93% win rate and $2.6M profit is buying TheMongolz into a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $2.6M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 402 events with over $5.3M in tracked volume.
- Market volume is running 60x above its historical average, supporting the move.
$1,407 on TheMongolz | Wallet win rate: 93%
Sharp bettor joins Falcons flow
Sharp profitable esports bettor bought Team Falcons amid a major pre-event volume spike and coordinated one-sided flow.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up $32.6k lifetime.
- Three wallets bought Team Falcons in the same window for $16k total.
- Market volume spiked 114x before the match, and Team Falcons has already moved from 61¢ to 64¢.
$1,644 on Team Falcons | Wallet win rate: 86%
Serial trader backs Falcons cluster
High composite alert driven by one-sided Team Falcons flow, a 114x pre-event volume spike, and a high-volume serial trader selling TheMongolz as an equivalent Falcons buy.
- Three wallets are all betting Team Falcons, totaling $16K in same-direction flow.
- Market activity spiked 114x above normal before the match, suggesting fresh conviction.
- This serial sports bettor has 905 resolved trades, wins 58%, and is up $13K lifetime.
$2,895 on Team Falcons | Wallet win rate: 58%
93% winner joins one-sided flow
A highly profitable 93% win-rate bettor bought TheMongolz alongside one-sided cluster flow and a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $2.6M lifetime.
- Five wallets are all buying TheMongolz, totaling about $32K in the same direction.
- Market volume spiked 104x before the match, suggesting strong momentum behind this side.
$1,616 on TheMongolz | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0x0dcf...c556 — TheMongolz, $52,959 (93% win rate)
- 0x5e6e...be00 — Team Falcons, $52,429 (51% win rate)
- 0xdd88...dadb — TheMongolz, $43,472 (58% win rate)
- 0x3af1...d739 — Team Falcons, $34,557 (42% win rate)
- 0x30c7...ac3b — Team Falcons, $25,000 (61% win rate)
- 0xa7df...5eee — Team Falcons, $23,765 (51% win rate)
- 0x5faf...1183 — TheMongolz, $23,144 (32% win rate)
- 0x8fbb...9a17 — TheMongolz, $20,516 (73% win rate)
- 0x21ec...5348 — Team Falcons, $20,000 (57% win rate)
- 0x29b5...cc6c — TheMongolz, $17,750 (58% win rate)
