Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Bitcoin will trade at or below $45,000 on Binance BTC/USDT before the end of December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if any 1-minute Binance candle has a final low price of $45,000 or lower between Nov. 24, 2025 and Dec. 31, 2026; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is currently tracking $2,473 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
42 smart money signals detected, totaling $154,556.
Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto
Notable Trades
99% winner buying BTC dip
A highly successful wallet with 103 wins in 104 resolved bets is effectively buying Yes on a BTC dip, backed by a large linked-wallet cluster and repeated cross-market positioning.
- This bettor has won 103 of 104 resolved trades and is up $76k lifetime.
- The trade is effectively a Buy Yes at 45¢, meaning they are betting Bitcoin hits $45k by end-2026.
- A 19-wallet funded cluster and repeated cross-market BTC positioning add conviction behind the move.
$2,473 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%
99% winner in 19-wallet cluster
A highly profitable 99% win-rate wallet from a 19-wallet funded cluster is effectively buying Yes on a Bitcoin $45k dip, with strong cross-market positioning across the same event.
- This bettor has won 103 of 104 resolved trades and is up $76k lifetime.
- 19 wallets tied to the same funder are active here, suggesting coordinated conviction.
- The wallet is effectively buying Yes at 44¢, implying a Bitcoin drop to $45k is underpriced.
$1,902 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%
18-wallet sharp BTC cluster
A highly successful wallet tied to an 18-wallet funded cluster is buying Yes on a BTC $45k dip while the broader cluster has been active across related Bitcoin markets.
- This bettor has won 103 of 104 resolved trades and is up $76k lifetime.
- 18 wallets share the same funder, suggesting coordinated conviction on this Bitcoin downside thesis.
- The group has placed over $71k across related BTC markets with a near-perfect resolved record.
$1,499 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%
Perfect-record crypto bettor
Sharp wallet with a perfect 102-0 resolved record is expressing a broad pro-Yes thesis across six related Bitcoin dip markets.
- This bettor is 102-for-102 on resolved markets and up $48,874 lifetime.
- They have $72,454 across 6 related Bitcoin dip markets, showing a broad conviction trade.
- Selling No at 55¢ equals buying Yes at 45¢, with Yes already up 12% this week.
$2,473 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable BTC downside thesis
Profitable wallet is building a multi-market Bitcoin downside thesis, with $32.2k positioned across four related markets despite this specific fill being modest.
- This wallet is up $45.6k lifetime and is spreading $32.2k across 4 related Bitcoin markets.
- The trade adds to a clear downside view, buying Yes at 47¢ on a BTC dip-to-$45k outcome.
- The market has moved toward this thesis over the past week, with Yes up 13 points.
$1,430 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 44%
Profitable BTC downside thesis
Profitable wallet is building a $31k cross-market thesis that Bitcoin will hit lower levels, with this trade buying Yes on a BTC $45k dip market.
- This wallet is up $45.6k on $192k invested, despite only 9 resolved markets so far.
- They have put $31.2k across 4 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader downside thesis.
- Yes odds are already up 15 points this week, and this entry at 47¢ targets about a 2.1x payout.
$1,450 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 44%
New whale buying BTC downside
A 4-day-old repeat whale has now put $53.6k into flagged trades, including a fresh $9k buy on BTC dipping to $45k by end-2026.
- This 4-day-old wallet has already made 7 large flagged bets totaling $53.6k.
- They bought $9k of Yes at 39¢, implying a roughly 2.6x payout if BTC touches $45k.
- The market has momentum behind the trade, with Yes up 7 points today and 8 points this week.
$9,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Cross-market BTC downside bettor
A high-win-rate but unprofitable wallet is making a $21k cross-market BTC-downside thesis, including buying Yes exposure here at 40¢ after recent upward price movement.
- This wallet is building the same BTC downside thesis across 4 related markets, totaling about $21k.
- The trade effectively buys Yes at 40¢, betting Bitcoin touches $45k before the end of 2026.
- The market has moved toward Yes recently, up 6 points in 1 day and 9 points over the week.
$7,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
86% winner cross-market BTC thesis
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market BTC thesis by buying No on a 2026 $45k dip at 70¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $9.3k lifetime.
- They have placed $19.1k across 3 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader directional view.
- Buying No at 70¢ means they are betting Bitcoin avoids a $45k dip through 2026.
$3,483 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
86% crypto bettor
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate is buying No as part of a broader cross-market Bitcoin dip thesis.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $9.3K lifetime.
- They have put $18.2K across 3 related Bitcoin dip markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 69¢ implies they think a drop to $45K by end-2026 is overpriced.
$2,484 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0x1465...7072 — No, $169,432 (91% win rate)
- 0x861f...177d — Yes, $148,797 (44% win rate)
- 0x825a...8835 — Yes, $143,610 (84% win rate)
- 0x8b14...d0b1 — Yes, $55,306 (71% win rate)
- 0x5371...76eb — No, $42,562 (100% win rate)
- 0x9a1f...c925 — No, $39,621
- 0xda5b...8cce — Yes, $37,051
- 0x7b5c...4960 — No, $35,105 (69% win rate)
- 0x4f31...efa3 — No, $31,472 (99% win rate)
- 0x273b...de09 — No, $27,585
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