Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will dip to $45,000 or lower by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle posts a low at or below $45,000 during the market window; otherwise it resolves No. The market settles on January 1, 2027, and current odds reflect trader expectations for a major BTC pullback before year-end 2026.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $27,632.
Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto
Notable Trades
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$2,513 | Wallet win rate: 75%
58-0 crypto event bettor
A wallet with a perfect 58-for-58 resolved record is adding a directional Bitcoin thesis across three related markets, making this despite the modest composite score.
- This bettor has won 58 of 58 resolved trades and is up $33k overall.
- They put nearly $18.8k across 3 related Bitcoin dip markets, showing a clear event-wide view.
- This trade buys the 66% side, implying they see a drop to $45k by year-end 2026 as less likely than the market suggests.
$3,363 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
58-0 BTC thesis bettor
A wallet with a perfect 58-0 record is building a consistent cross-market Bitcoin thesis, and this trade backs No at 67¢ in a liquid market that has recently moved that way.
- This bettor has won 58 of 58 resolved trades and is up $33k lifetime.
- They have put $18.4k across 3 related Bitcoin markets, showing a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 67¢ while the market has drifted 7.5 points that way over the past week.
$3,012 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
12-wallet sharp cluster
A 98% win-rate wallet from a 12-wallet funded cluster is buying No in a liquid Bitcoin dip market, with repeated cross-market positioning in the same event.
- This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades with $52k profit across 53 bets.
- 12 wallets funded by the same address have been tracked before, suggesting coordinated conviction.
- They bought No at 67¢ in a Bitcoin event where this wallet cluster has repeatedly traded across 3 related markets.
$3,007 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
58-0 cross-market sharp
A bettor with a perfect 58-for-58 resolved record is building the same Bitcoin downside view across three related markets, making this otherwise modest trade worth surfacing.
- This bettor has won 58 of 58 resolved trades and is up $33k lifetime.
- They are betting the same thesis across 3 related Bitcoin markets with $18.4k total deployed.
- They bought No at 65¢ while the market is still fairly active, suggesting a deliberate long-term view rather than a random whale trade.
$2,943 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Perfect-record BTC dip cluster
Three wallets with perfect resolved records are all buying No across multiple related BTC dip markets, suggesting coordinated conviction despite this market already trading at 66% No.
- Three wallets with perfect resolved records are all betting the same way on this BTC dip market.
- The group also hit 3 related markets in the same event, putting $13.4k behind the same thesis.
- They bought No at 65-66¢, implying they think the chance of a $45k dip by year-end 2026 is lower than the market price suggests.
$8,148 on No
11-wallet sharp cluster
An 11-wallet linked cluster with an elite 98% win-rate wallet is buying No in a liquid BTC threshold market, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than random whale flow.
- This wallet wins 98% of its resolved bets, with 51 wins in 52 and $52k profit.
- 11 wallets funded by the same source have been flagged here, which points to coordinated conviction.
- They bought No at 62¢, a fairly large bearish-against-dip stance in a $1.86M BTC market.
$1,858 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
57-0 crypto bettor
A wallet with a flawless 57-0 resolved record bought No at 62¢ on this BTC dip market, and the cross-market activity suggests a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This bettor has won 57 of 57 resolved markets and is up $33k lifetime
- They bought No at 62¢ across related Bitcoin markets, showing a repeat thesis rather than a random trade
- The bet is modest, but it landed in a market with only about $6.2k of recent volume, so the size still stands out
$2,787 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x861f...177d — Yes, $126,135 (44% win rate)
- 0xcc50...4c82 — No, $86,113 (39% win rate)
- 0x8b14...d0b1 — Yes, $53,302 (71% win rate)
- 0x825a...8835 — Yes, $51,362
- 0x9a1f...c925 — No, $39,621
- 0xda5b...8cce — Yes, $37,051
- 0x5371...76eb — No, $36,768 (100% win rate)
- 0xcb89...a2e8 — No, $32,966 (82% win rate)
- 0x7b5c...4960 — No, $31,538
- 0x1465...7072 — No, $28,813 (88% win rate)
