13 wallets put $78k on Japan not winning, including 2 wallets tied to the same funder. Several participants have strong records, including bettors winning 80%+ across thousands of resolved markets. The market has seen an unusual volume surge, with 24h volume above $11M and Japan’s Yes price up 21 points in a day.

Part of: Tunisia vs. Japan

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

47 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,496,332.

Categories: FIFA World Cup, Sports, Games, Soccer

Notable Trades

Serial sports bettor caught steam

A highly active cross-market sports bettor bought Japan Yes at 85¢ before a sharp move to 96¢ amid a major pre-event volume spike, though their lifetime P&L is slightly negative.

This bettor has traded 155 markets across 107 events and wins 93% of resolved bets.
They bought $15.8K of Yes at 85¢ before the market moved to 96¢.
Market volume spiked nearly 40x versus normal, with Japan Yes up 33 points in the last day.

$15,822 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

Profitable serial sports bettor

Profitable serial sports bettor bought Japan at 85¢ ahead of a sharp move to 96¢ during a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor is up $84.7K lifetime across 369 resolved bets.
They have traded 35 related events and win 61% of resolved markets.
Bought Japan at 85¢ before the market moved to 96¢ on a 39.7x volume spike.

$8,160 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%

13-wallet No cluster

Large 13-wallet cluster is positioning against Japan at 14–18¢, with linked wallets and several high-volume bettors who have strong historical win records despite some Yes sells looking like profit-taking.

13 wallets put $78k on Japan not winning, including 2 wallets tied to the same funder.
Several participants have strong records, including bettors winning 80%+ across thousands of resolved markets.
The market has seen an unusual volume surge, with 24h volume above $11M and Japan’s Yes price up 21 points in a day.

$78,249 on No

80% winner riding surge

High-volume Japan Yes buy from an 80% winner with extensive cross-market history, alongside a major pre-event volume spike and sharp upward price move.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades across 203 bets and has traded 60 related events.
Japan Yes has surged 17 points with a 63x pre-event volume spike, suggesting broad momentum behind the move.
The $12,000 buy at 85¢ adds conviction despite the market already being highly liquid.

$12,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Sharp whale No cluster

A very large 16-wallet No cluster includes a bettor with a 98% win record and $836k profit, though the market has since moved sharply against their entry.

A bettor who has won 65 of 66 resolved bets and is up $836k put about $66k on No at 33¢.
16 wallets all took the same No side for $636k total, far larger than normal activity despite this being a highly traded market.
This is now available much cheaper than the main whale entries, with No around 14¢ versus their 33–34¢ buys.

$636,190 on No

99% serial sports winner

Elite 99% win-rate wallet bought Japan just before market close amid a major volume spike and sharp price move.

This bettor wins 99% of resolved trades and is up $56K lifetime.
They bought Japan at 67¢ just before close, ahead of a move to 86¢.
The market saw a 102x volume spike and Yes moved up about 19 points.

$1,005 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%

Perfect-record sports whale

Elite sports bettor with a perfect 21-for-21 resolved record placed a $164k Japan Yes bet that immediately moved from 68¢ to 86¢ amid a major volume spike.

This bettor has won 21 of 21 resolved bets and is up about $894k lifetime.
They put $164k on Japan at 68¢, and the market has already moved to 86¢.
This wallet has traded 39 events with a perfect resolved record, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.

$164,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

92% winner riding momentum

A highly profitable 92% winner with extensive cross-market history bought Japan Yes during a major volume spike and sharp upward price move.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved bets and is up $680,755 lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 159 events with the same 92% hit rate.
Japan Yes has jumped 22 points in 24 hours amid a 102x volume spike.

$1,221 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Five-wallet last-minute No push

Large coordinated live-game flow: five wallets bought roughly $627k of No near the scheduled finish, alongside a major volume spike and a repeat large-betting new wallet.

Five wallets all bought No, totaling about $627k in the same market direction.
This 18-day-old wallet has now triggered over $1M in large-bet alerts.
Volume spiked 126x while the market moved 19 points in a day, suggesting heavy live-game positioning.

$628,027 on No

98% winner backing No

Surface: an exceptionally profitable sports bettor with a 98% resolved win record bought Japan No alongside heavy same-direction flow and a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor has won 65 of 66 resolved positions and is up $836,670 lifetime.
They bought Japan No at 33¢, going against a market where Yes is still favored around 66%.
Four wallets have piled into the same No side for $552,252 amid a 125x volume spike.

$19,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%

Top Holders

0xd66e...051f — Outcome 45846181, $2,795,533
0xf031...c80c — Outcome 45846181, $749,992 (93% win rate)
0x224a...a3d5 — Outcome 45846181, $577,995 (62% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 45846181, $534,119
0xe549...2d54 — Outcome 45846181, $400,000 (100% win rate)
0x4bff...fc26 — Outcome 45846181, $202,975 (88% win rate)
0x89dd...f662 — Outcome 45846181, $200,000 (98% win rate)
0xc31d...4ebe — Outcome 45846181, $178,941 (51% win rate)
0x8b32...5950 — Outcome 45846181, $168,047 (44% win rate)
0x86d2...731d — Outcome 45846181, $133,003 (78% win rate)

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Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

ResolvedTunisia vs. Japan$2,496,332 tracked47 signalsFIFA World CupSportsGamesSoccer

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 21, 2026 If Japan wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Price History — “Yes”