Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?
This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will reach $80,000 at any point in April, using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle highs as the official resolution source. The market resolves to Yes if any final 1-minute candle during April shows a high of $80,000 or more; otherwise it resolves to No. It is scheduled to resolve on May 1, 2026, after the month ends and the outcome can be confirmed.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
27 smart money signals detected, totaling $584,455.
Categories: Bitcoin, Monthly, Hit Price, Crypto, Crypto Prices, Recurring
Notable Trades
Proven cross-market BTC bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a solid 69% win rate bought No at 71¢ in a liquid Bitcoin target market, making this a credible thesis trade worth watching despite limited signal diversity.
- This bettor has a 69% win rate across 559 resolved markets and is up about $18.5k overall
- They have traded 528 markets across 383 events, which points to a repeatable event-trading process rather than a one-off punt
- They bought No at 71¢, meaning they see Bitcoin staying below $80k this month with better than 70% odds
$2,937 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable serial event trader
Surface this because a very active, profitable cross-market trader with 1,197 resolved bets and $316k P&L is taking a fresh $5.6k position on No across a broad Bitcoin April price-target event.
- This bettor has 1,197 resolved trades, a 59% win rate, and is up $316k overall
- They have traded 7 markets in this same Bitcoin event and 115 related markets across 59 events
- They bought No at 70¢, a clear directional view in a liquid market rather than a routine exit
$5,578 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
4-wallet BTC No cluster
A 4-wallet cluster put $237k on No in a major Bitcoin price market during a 253x volume spike, signaling coordinated high-conviction positioning despite mixed wallet quality.
- Four wallets piled $237k into No in minutes, with one account alone buying about $208k at 70¢
- This hit during a 253x volume spike, showing unusually aggressive one-sided flow in a major BTC market
- The cluster includes a cross-market bettor active across 59 events with a 59% win rate, suggesting this is a repeat thesis trader rather than random flow
$237,491 on No
Profitable serial crypto trader
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with nearly 1,200 resolved bets just put $49.6k into No during a major volume spike on this Bitcoin target market.
- This bettor has 1,197 resolved trades, wins 59% of them, and is up $316.7k lifetime
- They put nearly $50k on No at 70¢ while this market saw a 164x surge in activity
- The trade fits a broad crypto-event pattern across 7 related markets with $340k deployed
$49,568 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable cross-market BTC trader
A high-volume, highly active cross-market trader with $316k profit just put $51k into No while this Bitcoin target market is seeing an extreme volume surge.
- This bettor has 1,197 resolved trades, a 59% win rate, and is up $316k overall
- They just placed a $51k bet on No as activity in this market surged more than 1,000x above its usual level
- Buying No at 70¢ suggests they see Bitcoin staying below $80k this month, with the market still liquid enough to follow
$51,348 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable event specialist
Profitable high-volume trader with 1,139 resolved bets is making a sizable $32k event-wide position by buying No at 66¢ in a major Bitcoin target market.
- This bettor has 1,139 resolved trades, a 58% win rate, and is up $317k overall
- They have bet $108k across 7 related Bitcoin April target markets, showing a clear event-wide thesis
- Buying No at 66¢ means they only need Bitcoin to stay below $80k through April for this to pay out
$32,233 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable cross-market BTC bettor
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with 1,139 resolved bets is taking a fresh position across 7 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a deliberate event-wide view rather than a random single-market bet.
- This bettor has 1,139 resolved trades, wins 58% of them, and is up about $317k lifetime
- They have put nearly $79k across 7 Bitcoin April target markets, showing a broad event-wide thesis
- Buying No at 67¢ means they likely see April $80k odds as lower than the market implies
$2,733 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable BTC thesis trader
A historically profitable wallet with a 73% win rate is expressing a broader Bitcoin thesis across three related markets by effectively buying Yes at 40¢ after a recent pullback.
- This bettor has won 73% of 651 resolved trades and is up about $335k lifetime.
- They are betting across 3 related Bitcoin markets with $16.8k total, which points to a broader event view rather than a one-off trade.
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 40¢ while the market sits around 38-39¢ after a 12-point one-day drop.
$3,527 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable serial crypto bettor
A historically profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate bought No at 61¢ in a major BTC threshold market, making this a credible thesis-driven position worth watching despite only one trade.
- This bettor wins 73% of 651 resolved trades and is up about $335k lifetime.
- They trade across related event markets at scale — 366 events and 483 markets for $1.5M total.
- They bought No at 61¢ in a liquid BTC market, backing a clear thesis rather than chasing a thin market move.
$3,575 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
4-wallet BTC NO cluster
Four wallets coordinated into No around 60¢ on a major BTC April target market, led by several highly active cross-market traders with strong long-term results.
- Four wallets all lined up on No for $22.5k total, a clear one-sided bet rather than random flow.
- One wallet wins 78% of 1,087 resolved bets and another is up $855.7k lifetime, so this cluster includes traders with real track records.
- They entered at 60¢ on No while this BTC target market has traded up sharply over the past week, suggesting they see the rally as overpricing April odds.
$22,546 on No
Top Holders
- 0xd4f9...f619 — No, $239,013 (68% win rate)
- 0x6765...fa0d — No, $155,401 (90% win rate)
- 0x8150...d03f — Yes, $87,785 (34% win rate)
- 0x6e1d...d0fa — No, $76,140 (59% win rate)
- 0xd4aa...d40c — Yes, $72,362
- 0xc408...c1ef — Yes, $62,893
- 0xf705...3ca7 — Yes, $62,861 (51% win rate)
- 0xdcc0...22e1 — Yes, $52,220 (59% win rate)
- 0x995e...13ae — Yes, $37,196 (34% win rate)
- 0x8f91...c5f0 — Yes, $30,013
