Part of: South Africa vs. Canada - More Markets

Spread: Canada (-1.5)

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $226,777.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Profitable serial sports bettor

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 72% win rate and +$175k lifetime P&L bought $3k of Canada -1.5 amid a large volume spike, though the price has since moved against them.

This bettor wins 72% of resolved bets and is up $175k lifetime.
They placed $3,000 on Canada -1.5 at 15¢, taking a long-shot spread position with clear upside.
Market volume is running 24x above normal, suggesting unusual attention around this game.

$3,000 on Canada | Wallet win rate: 72%

98% serial cross-market bettor

A highly successful serial cross-market bettor placed a $40k buy on South Africa at 89¢, supported by a pre-event volume spike and immediate move to 92¢.

This bettor has won 98% of 104 resolved trades and has bet across 35 events.
They placed $40,000 on South Africa at 89¢, and the market has already moved to 92¢.
Volume is running 12.5x above normal ahead of the match, adding momentum to the trade.

$40,000 on South Africa | Wallet win rate: 98%

94% winner backs underdog spread

Sharp wallet with a 94% historical win rate and positive P&L bought South Africa against the spread amid a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $25K lifetime.
They put $4.7K on South Africa at 73¢ shortly before kickoff.
Market activity is surging, with volume running 52.9x above its historical average.

$4,747 on South Africa | Wallet win rate: 94%

Brand-new whale before kickoff

A brand-new wallet made a $97k Canada -1.5 buy shortly before kickoff alongside a 53x pre-event volume spike, suggesting notable conviction despite no wallet track record.

A brand-new wallet put $97k on Canada -1.5 shortly before kickoff.
Market activity is running 53x above its historical pace.
Entry at 28¢ implies a 3.6x payout if Canada win by 2 or more.

$96,950 on Canada

Sharp 79% serial trader

Sharp 79% lifetime bettor with positive P&L is buying South Africa against Canada -1.5, supported by linked-wallet clustering and a long cross-market track record.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $21.8K lifetime.
They have traded across 53 events with a 79% win rate, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
Four wallets share the same funder, adding support to the South Africa side at 73¢.

$1,825 on South Africa | Wallet win rate: 80%

96% serial sports bettor

A highly successful serial cross-market sports bettor with a 96% resolved win record placed a $41k buy on South Africa +1.5.

This bettor has won 55 of 57 resolved positions, an unusually strong 96% hit rate.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 67 events and $4.7M in tracked volume.
The $41k entry at 72¢ shows meaningful conviction on South Africa to cover +1.5.

$41,082 on South Africa | Wallet win rate: 97%

Repeat new-wallet pregame buy

A 12-day-old repeat large bettor bought nearly $8k of South Africa amid a major pre-game volume spike, though the wallet has only a short and unproven record.

A 12-day-old wallet has now been flagged 6 times for large bets, totaling $25.4k.
This trade adds $7.9k on South Africa at 71¢ shortly before the match window.
Market activity is surging, with volume about 99x its historical pace.

$7,920 on South Africa | Wallet win rate: 82%

New repeat pre-game bettor

Very new repeat bettor bought South Africa against the Canada -1.5 spread during a sharp pre-game volume spike, though the wallet has only a tiny track record so conviction is moderate.

This 18-hour-old wallet has already made multiple flagged bets, with $4.1K total detected across 3 positions.
Market activity is surging before kickoff, with volume about 99x above its historical pace.
The bettor paid 71¢ for South Africa, meaning Canada must win by 2+ goals for this bet to lose.

$2,702 on South Africa | Wallet win rate: 100%

96% winner buying underdog spread

A proven sharp sports bettor with a 96% resolved win rate bought Canada -1.5 at 32¢, making the wallet track record the main signal despite the market being liquid.

This bettor has won 50 of 52 resolved positions and is up $3,489 lifetime.
They are buying Canada -1.5 at 32¢, implying a meaningful payout if their sports edge holds.
The wallet’s past wins came at 41¢ average odds, so this is the kind of mid-price bet where they have performed well.

$1,000 on Canada | Wallet win rate: 97%

Four-wallet Canada spread push

Four wallets put about $21k on Canada -1.5, backed by coordinated one-sided flow and a serial cross-market bettor with a 76% resolved record.

Four wallets are all taking Canada -1.5, totaling about $21k on the same side.
One key bettor wins 76% of resolved bets and has traded across 28 events.
Entry around 33¢ implies a roughly 3x payout if Canada win by 2+ goals.

$9,251 on Canada

Top Holders

0x9f58...3825 — Outcome 45006950, $346,250
0x032e...2a9e — Outcome 45006950, $47,939 (71% win rate)
0x35e2...9dcb — Outcome 45006950, $45,455 (82% win rate)
0xf93f...f94b — Outcome 45006950, $19,730 (72% win rate)
0xc41d...74fd — Outcome 45006950, $14,800 (97% win rate)
0xb0a2...353a — Outcome 45006950, $10,000 (85% win rate)
0x72b8...9915 — Outcome 45006950, $9,627 (100% win rate)
0xb10b...0b04 — Outcome 45006950, $6,666 (84% win rate)
0xb517...434b — Outcome 45006950, $3,333 (88% win rate)
0x62e0...32df — Outcome 45006950, $3,125 (97% win rate)

Related Theses

Spread: Canada (-1.5)

ResolvedSouth Africa vs. Canada - More Markets$226,777 tracked12 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 28 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Canada" if Canada win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "South Africa". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Price History — “South Africa”

85¢

76¢

66¢