Part of: World Cup Winner
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $376,982.
Categories: Soccer, Sports, FIFA World Cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
Sharp winner buying long-shot Yes
Surface due to sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 86% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, even though the stake is modest in a very liquid long-dated market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $42K lifetime.
- They bought Argentina at 8¢, a long-shot price with about 12.5x payout if it hits.
- The market is very liquid, so the signal comes from the bettor’s track record rather than price impact.
$5,039 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
92% win-rate World Cup bettor
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet bought $15k of Argentina Yes and has a long record of successful cross-market World Cup-style positioning.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved positions and is up $541k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 276 events, with nearly $3M deployed and the same 92% hit rate.
- A $15k entry at 15¢ implies they see Argentina as materially underpriced.
$4,381 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
95% win-rate serial bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 95% resolved win rate bought $14k of Argentina Yes at 20¢.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $450k lifetime.
- They have traded 388 markets across 285 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- A $14k buy at 20¢ implies they see Argentina as underpriced despite a very liquid market.
$29,247 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
92% win-rate World Cup bettor
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet bought $15k of Argentina Yes and has a long record of successful cross-market World Cup-style positioning.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved positions and is up $541k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 276 events, with nearly $3M deployed and the same 92% hit rate.
- A $15k entry at 15¢ implies they see Argentina as materially underpriced.
$8,320 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Perfect-record soccer bettor
A proven sharp wallet with a 120-0 resolved record bought Argentina Yes at 21¢, making this worth surfacing despite the modest bet size in a very liquid market.
- This bettor has won 120 of 120 resolved positions and is up $7.8k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 21¢, implying a long-shot World Cup view with roughly 4.8x upside.
- Argentina’s odds are already moving, up 8.9 percentage points over the past week.
$4,590 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%
79% winner cross-market thesis
High composite score from a 79% historical winner making a cross-market World Cup thesis, though lifetime P&L is slightly negative.
- This bettor has won 79% of resolved trades, beating average entry odds of 32%.
- They have put $14.6K across 3 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader tournament thesis.
- Argentina Yes at 14¢ is moving with recent momentum, up 5.8 points over the past week.
$8,449 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Sharp bettor backs longshot
Sharp profitable wallet with 87% historical win rate is buying Argentina World Cup Yes despite the alert having only a weak standalone score.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $15.4K lifetime.
- Their past wins came at 71¢ average odds, suggesting a real edge rather than only buying heavy favorites.
- Entry at 8¢ is a low-cost longshot position on a highly liquid World Cup market.
$8,570 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
New whale World Cup portfolio
A 7-day-old wallet has now made repeated large World Cup bets, including a $5.7k Argentina Yes buy as part of $27k cross-market positioning.
- A 7-day-old wallet is already betting big, with about $35k flagged across repeated large trades.
- This $5.7k buy is part of $27k in World Cup positioning across 3 related markets.
- Entry at 12¢ is a high-upside futures bet if the bettor is right on Argentina.
$6,275 on Yes
87% winner backs long shot
A highly profitable bettor with an 87% win rate and extensive cross-market history bought Argentina World Cup Yes at 8¢ despite the market being very liquid.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $660K lifetime.
- They are a serious cross-market trader, active across 185 events with over $623K placed.
- Entry at 8¢ gives a low-cost long-shot position on Argentina winning the 2026 World Cup.
$9,225 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
82% winner fading Argentina
Sharp wallet override: an 82% lifetime winner with positive P&L is fading Argentina by selling Yes in a liquid World Cup market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades across 233 bets and is up $2.3K lifetime.
- They sold Argentina Yes at 20¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 80¢.
- The wallet has beaten its average implied odds by 24 percentage points, suggesting real historical edge.
$5,856 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 11542815, $52,325,995
- 0xa7b7...962e — Outcome 18812649, $12,354,112
- 0x620d...c67f — Outcome 18812649, $5,421,471 (80% win rate)
- 0x8b5a...00f2 — Outcome 18812649, $1,509,116 (51% win rate)
- 0x9ba7...f56b — Outcome 18812649, $1,260,230 (50% win rate)
- 0x7c1e...bab3 — Outcome 18812649, $1,019,293 (98% win rate)
- 0x7d83...be92 — Outcome 18812649, $825,657
- 0xe549...2d54 — Outcome 18812649, $784,524 (99% win rate)
- 0xd49f...4507 — Outcome 18812649, $568,720 (74% win rate)
- 0xf2f6...5817 — Outcome 18812649, $566,151 (75% win rate)
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