Part of: Kai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...?

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $20,016.

Categories: gaming, Culture, streamer, Minecraft, IShowSpeed, Live Streams

Notable Trades

92% winner leads coordinated Yes buying

A highly profitable 92% win-rate bettor led a coordinated $16.8K Yes purchase during a massive volume and price surge.

  • A bettor with a 92% win rate across 719 resolved trades and $4.15M profit bought $8,670 of Yes at 86¢.
  • Three wallets committed $16,822 to Yes, with one already adding to a substantial existing position.
  • Trading volume spiked to 185.8 times its historical average while Yes rose 71.5% in one day.

$16,822 on Yes

95% win-rate serial bettor buys No

A highly proven bettor with a 95% win rate and $779K lifetime profit made a fresh $1,364 No bet at 87% in a liquid market.

  • This bettor has won 95% of 1,635 resolved positions and earned about $779,000 in profit.
  • The wallet is a serial cross-market trader active across 269 events, making this a well-established pattern rather than an isolated bet.
  • They bought No at 87¢, signaling strong confidence that the challenge will not be completed by the deadline.

$1,364 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable serial bettor buys No

A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market bettor placed a meaningful $1,830 bet on No, though the 87% market price limits the apparent edge.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 3,710 resolved trades and earned $4.15 million in profit.
  • They have traded across 146 events and are committing $1,830 to No in a relatively thin market.
  • The 87¢ entry is already close to the market price, so the opportunity is mainly the bettor’s proven track record rather than a clear price bargain.

$1,830 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5109...5e9c Outcome 23239899, $7,987 (40% win rate)
  2. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 23239899, $5,128
  3. 0x4337...8882 Outcome 23239899, $5,047 (74% win rate)
  4. 0xd109...6fa0 Outcome 23239899, $3,923 (80% win rate)
  5. 0x5a21...9318 Outcome 23239899, $2,537 (61% win rate)
  6. 0x81a6...762e Outcome 23239899, $2,000
  7. 0x6560...e164 Outcome 23239899, $1,873 (60% win rate)
  8. 0xe8c4...395d Outcome 23239899, $1,794 (94% win rate)
  9. 0x6978...08d8 Outcome 23239899, $1,500 (49% win rate)
  10. 0x9dfe...b3dd Outcome 23239899, $1,004 (67% win rate)

Related Theses

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Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?

ResolvedKai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...?$20,016 tracked3 signalsgamingCulturestreamerMinecraftIShowSpeedLive Streams

Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge live on stream between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All four objectives must be completed on the same seed and in the same world. Progress across multiple seeds will not be combined. Any successful attempt within the specified timeframe will qualify; however, no challenge progress may be carried over following an in-game death and the beginning of a new attempt. Practice or casual worlds not set to Hardcore will not count. No event will count if it occurs while the player in question is in Creative or Spectator mode, or if it results from the use of commands, cheats, or any external tool to spawn entities, alter the world, or deal damage. Only completion of the challenge as defined above will qualify. If Kai and Speed modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode, any completion achieved under the modified rules will not count toward resolution. Only events occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. If the challenge is cancelled by, abandoned before completion by, or delayed to a point after the specified date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the challenge on Kai Cenat's and IShowSpeed's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?

11d ago

$16,822 on Yes at 86¢

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?

11d ago

$1,364 on No at 87¢

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?

15d ago

$1,830 on No at 87¢

Related Theses