Part of: World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,732.
Categories: world cup, Soccer, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Sports, FIFA World Cup, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
83% winner buying NO
Despite only a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a large resolved history, an 83% win rate, and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 1,064 bets and is up $49K lifetime.
- They bought No at 74¢ after Yes fell sharply, with the market down 20 points today.
- The $1K buy is meaningful in a quiet market with only $3.6K of liquidity.
$2,859 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
83% winner buying Yes
Surface despite weak low-activity signals because the wallet has a large resolved history, an 83% win rate, and $49.5k lifetime profit, with the latest larger trade equivalent to buying Yes at 14¢.
- This bettor has won 83% of 1,082 resolved bets and is up $49.5k lifetime.
- The latest larger trade is effectively buying Yes at 14¢, against an 85% market lean toward No.
- The bet was large for this quiet market, equal to about 61% of reported 24h volume.
$4,772 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
83% winner buying NO
Despite only a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a large resolved history, an 83% win rate, and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 1,064 bets and is up $49K lifetime.
- They bought No at 74¢ after Yes fell sharply, with the market down 20 points today.
- The $1K buy is meaningful in a quiet market with only $3.6K of liquidity.
$1,913 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
83% winner buying NO
Despite only a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a large resolved history, an 83% win rate, and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 1,064 bets and is up $49K lifetime.
- They bought No at 74¢ after Yes fell sharply, with the market down 20 points today.
- The $1K buy is meaningful in a quiet market with only $3.6K of liquidity.
$1,775 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
83% winner buying NO
Despite only a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a large resolved history, an 83% win rate, and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 1,064 bets and is up $49K lifetime.
- They bought No at 74¢ after Yes fell sharply, with the market down 20 points today.
- The $1K buy is meaningful in a quiet market with only $3.6K of liquidity.
$1,407 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
83% winner buying NO
Despite only a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a large resolved history, an 83% win rate, and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 1,064 bets and is up $49K lifetime.
- They bought No at 74¢ after Yes fell sharply, with the market down 20 points today.
- The $1K buy is meaningful in a quiet market with only $3.6K of liquidity.
$1,007 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0x7cc1...fdc6 — Outcome 39503568, $2,630
- 0x1a19...2328 — Outcome 39503568, $210 (89% win rate)
- 0x8de2...8483 — Outcome 39503568, $144 (88% win rate)
- 0xc82f...66a7 — Outcome 39503568, $120 (40% win rate)
- 0x7e80...631b — Outcome 39503568, $112
- 0xaa0e...2a0e — Outcome 39503568, $99 (79% win rate)
- 0x9209...b4d5 — Outcome 39503568, $56
- 0xdc05...9a76 — Outcome 39503568, $50
- 0x510f...a43c — Outcome 39503568, $45
- 0x7df6...ac3b — Outcome 39503568, $31
Related Theses
Credible sale exceeds $32.5M
Covers 2 related markets
US-Iran peace deal imminent
Covers 2 related markets