What is this measles prediction market about?

The market is betting on whether the United States will have at least 2,200 confirmed measles cases in 2026 by June 30, 2026, according to the CDC’s measles case counter.

How will the market resolve?

It resolves to “Yes” if the CDC Measles (Rubeola) 2026 “Total Cases” counter shows 2,200 or more confirmed cases by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.”

What source is used for the official measles case count?

The resolution source is the CDC measles data page, specifically the 2026 “Total Cases” figure for confirmed measles cases in the United States.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on the CDC count as of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,203 in smart money activity and 1 signal for this market, including alerts from profitable thin-market and veteran bettors buying Yes.

Part of: Measles cases in U.S. by June 30?

Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the CDC will report at least 2,200 confirmed U.S. measles cases in 2026 by June 30, 2026. It resolves based on the CDC Measles (Rubeola) “Total Cases” counter, and PolySpotter tracks live market pricing plus smart money activity, including $1,203 in tracked smart money and 1 recent signal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,833.

Categories: Weather, Science, Measles, Pandemics

Notable Trades

Profitable veteran buying thin Yes

Profitable veteran wallet made a meaningful contrarian Yes bet on a very quiet measles market, buying the equivalent of Yes at 11¢ for far more than recent daily volume.

This bettor is up about $59.8k lifetime across 916 resolved bets.
The trade is effectively a Yes buy at 11¢, more than 17x the market’s recent 24h volume.
Resolution is only weeks away, and CDC case tracking makes a research edge plausible.

$1,203 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable thin-market bettor

Profitable high-sample wallet made a large No bet that dwarfs daily volume in a very quiet market.

This bettor has 910 resolved trades and is up about $53K lifetime.
The $1.6K No buy was over 23x the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
Entry at 81¢ implies a conservative but focused bet that the case count stays below 2,200.

$1,630 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%