Part of: UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $118,989.

Categories: Sports, Games, UFC

Notable Trades

Serial bettor scaling into Lucas

A profitable serial cross-market bettor added to an existing Lucas Fernando position during an extreme pre-event volume spike, though the bettor's 75% win rate is only modestly above the 73% entry price.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 134 resolved trades and is up $98,285 overall.
  • The wallet added $3,000 to an existing Lucas Fernando position at 73¢, signaling continued conviction.
  • Market activity is running 25,926× above its historical baseline across five trades, making the move worth monitoring.

$3,572 on Lucas Fernando | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp bettor adds to Lucas Fernando

A highly profitable bettor with a 76% win rate and substantial historical edge added $29.7K to Lucas Fernando amid an extreme volume surge.

  • This bettor wins 76% of 851 resolved trades and is up more than $1 million.
  • They added $29,737 to Lucas Fernando at 72¢, reinforcing an existing $72,720 position.
  • The market saw a 25,926× historical volume spike while Lucas Fernando’s price continued rising.

$23,250 on Lucas Fernando | Wallet win rate: 78%

97% winner scaling into Lucas Fernando

A highly profitable serial bettor with a 97% win rate and nearly $1M in P&L is adding $7,561 to Lucas Fernando amid a major volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 278 of 288 resolved trades and is up nearly $987,000.
  • The wallet is adding $7,561 to an existing Lucas Fernando position, bringing its apparent exposure above $17,000.
  • Market volume is running 25,926 times above its historical average while Lucas Fernando trades at 73–74%.

$7,561 on Lucas Fernando | Wallet win rate: 96%

Sharp bettor adds to Lucas Fernando

A highly profitable bettor with a 76% win rate and substantial historical edge added $29.7K to Lucas Fernando amid an extreme volume surge.

  • This bettor wins 76% of 851 resolved trades and is up more than $1 million.
  • They added $29,737 to Lucas Fernando at 72¢, reinforcing an existing $72,720 position.
  • The market saw a 25,926× historical volume spike while Lucas Fernando’s price continued rising.

$29,737 on Lucas Fernando | Wallet win rate: 78%

Serial bettor scaling into Lucas

A profitable serial cross-market bettor added to an existing Lucas Fernando position during an extreme pre-event volume spike, though the bettor's 75% win rate is only modestly above the 73% entry price.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 134 resolved trades and is up $98,285 overall.
  • The wallet added $3,000 to an existing Lucas Fernando position at 73¢, signaling continued conviction.
  • Market activity is running 25,926× above its historical baseline across five trades, making the move worth monitoring.

$3,000 on Lucas Fernando | Wallet win rate: 76%

Serial bettor scaling into Lucas Fernando

A proven serial sports trader is adding $7,286 to an existing Lucas Fernando position amid an extreme pre-event volume spike.

  • This bettor has resolved 2,141 trades with a 66% win rate and $274,455 in lifetime profit.
  • They added $7,286 to an existing Lucas Fernando position while the market saw a 25,926x historical volume spike.
  • The trade entered at 73¢, with Lucas Fernando currently priced as a 74% favorite.

$7,286 on Lucas Fernando | Wallet win rate: 66%

Sharp-wallet cluster backs Lucas Fernando

Three highly profitable wallets added $44.6K to Lucas Fernando, including a 97% win-rate bettor, amid an extreme volume spike.

  • Three wallets committed $44,584 to Lucas Fernando, with all three already increasing existing positions.
  • One bettor wins 97% of 288 resolved trades and is up nearly $987,000; another wins 76% across 851 trades.
  • The buying produced a 32,167x spike versus historical volume, while Lucas Fernando trades around 72–73¢.

$44,584 on Lucas Fernando

Top Holders

  1. 0xfe78...0319 Outcome 29455143, $34,263 (65% win rate)
  2. 0x533c...2658 Outcome 29455143, $27,397 (70% win rate)
  3. 0x2c33...0563 Outcome 29455143, $17,545 (60% win rate)
  4. 0x224a...a3d5 Outcome 29455143, $12,507 (65% win rate)
  5. 0x9c1c...7980 Outcome 29455143, $5,520 (74% win rate)
  6. 0x224f...514a Outcome 29455143, $5,400 (84% win rate)
  7. 0x9272...e1c1 Outcome 29455143, $5,083
  8. 0x8089...f935 Outcome 29455143, $4,000
  9. 0x300b...f636 Outcome 29455143, $3,278 (60% win rate)
  10. 0xb450...eaef Outcome 29455143, $1,760 (25% win rate)

Related Theses

England Ghana ends 1-1

Covers 3 related markets

Argentina-Austria stays low scoring

Covers 4 related markets

Tunisia keeps Japan close

Covers 4 related markets

Iran New Zealand odds mispriced

Covers 3 related markets

Argentina Algeria stays low-scoring

Covers 4 related markets

Belgium-Senegal ends with four goals

Covers 4 related markets

Scotland-Brazil stays tight and low

Covers 6 related markets

Bosnia-Qatar stays low scoring

Covers 4 related markets

Early goal, exactly two total

Covers 4 related markets

Bosnia keeps low-scoring match close

Covers 4 related markets

UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

This market will resolve to "Lucas Fernando" if Lucas Fernando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Rafael Tobias" if Rafael Tobias is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Notable Trades

UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

8d ago

$3,572 on Lucas Fernando at 73¢

UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

8d ago

$23,250 on Lucas Fernando at 72¢

UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

8d ago

$7,561 on Lucas Fernando at 73¢

UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

8d ago

$29,737 on Lucas Fernando at 72¢

UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

8d ago

$3,000 on Lucas Fernando at 73¢

UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

8d ago

$7,286 on Lucas Fernando at 73¢

UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

8d ago

$44,584 on Lucas Fernando at 72¢

Related Theses

England Ghana ends 1-1
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 3 related markets
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5Spread: England (-1.5)
Argentina-Austria stays low scoring
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Hal…
Tunisia keeps Japan close
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5
Iran New Zealand odds mispriced
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 3 related markets
Will New Zealand win on 2026-0…Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15…Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand e…
Argentina Algeria stays low-scoring
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5
Belgium-Senegal ends with four goals
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5Belgium vs. Senegal: 1st Half …
Scotland-Brazil stays tight and low
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 6 related markets
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5Spread: Brazil (-1.5)
Bosnia-Qatar stays low scoring
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qat…Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qat…Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: …
Early goal, exactly two total
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2…Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st H…Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0…
Bosnia keeps low-scoring match close
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
United States vs. Bosnia and H…Spread: United States (-1.5)United States vs. Bosnia and H…