Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,470.

Notable Trades

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

A profitable, high-volume cross-market trader with 1,000 resolved bets is buying No at 90¢ across multiple related Middle East strike markets, suggesting a deliberate geopolitical thesis rather than a one-off trade.

  • This bettor has 1,000 resolved bets, wins 68% of the time, and is up $123.7k
  • They are trading 3 related markets in the same event with $8.6k total, pointing to a broader thesis
  • Bought No at 90¢ in a liquid market, signaling confidence the strike will not happen by March 31

$3,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8213...083b Yes, $49,856
  2. 0x878f...1755 Yes, $34,408
  3. 0x0d15...c454 No, $22,577
  4. 0x8f42...b88f Yes, $19,129 (59% win rate)
  5. 0x6139...6b7a No, $14,745
  6. 0xa04d...eecf No, $14,267
  7. 0x23eb...48d8 Yes, $13,520
  8. 0x5011...220e No, $12,993
  9. 0x2fad...f5c0 No, $11,909
  10. 0x25bf...825a No, $10,270

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

1d$3,470 tracked1 signalPoliticsIsraelIranGeopoliticsMiddle EastRegional SpilloverMilitary Strikesstrike
Yes
5¢
No
96¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

3d ago

$3,470 on No at 90¢

90¢96¢6¢

Related Theses

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | PolySpotter