Part of: Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $91,489.

Categories: Esports, Dota 2, Games, Sports

Notable Trades

Elite bettors converging on Aurora

Six wallets deployed $37,400 on Aurora, including several highly profitable bettors, while the price subsequently rose from roughly 50-63% to 77%.

  • Six wallets bought $37,400 of Aurora, including bettors with 95%, 96%, and 98% win rates.
  • The strongest positions entered around 50-59%, and Aurora has since climbed to 77%, indicating substantial market confirmation.
  • A 46.9x volume spike and concentrated buying suggest unusually strong pre-match conviction.

$48,462 on Aurora

Six-wallet Liquid conviction cluster

A serial cross-market bettor with a 66% win rate added to a large Team Liquid position alongside five other wallets during a major volume spike, though the trade has since moved sharply against them.

  • Six wallets bought Team Liquid for $38,154 during a 46.9x volume spike.
  • This bettor has won 66% of 550 resolved trades and is up $487,114 lifetime.
  • The wallet added to an existing $19,652 Liquid position, but its 42¢ entry has fallen to roughly 23¢.

$1,500 on Team Liquid | Wallet win rate: 66%

96% winner backs Aurora with coordinated flow

A highly profitable bettor with a 96% win rate bought Aurora at 50%, alongside four other one-sided wallets, and the price has since risen to 74%.

  • This bettor has won 830 of 869 resolved positions and earned about $1.44 million.
  • Five wallets bought Aurora in the same direction for $33,900 total, including this $3,373 position.
  • The entry was 50%, while Aurora now trades around 74%, indicating the bet has already moved strongly in its favor.

$3,373 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 96%

Six-wallet Liquid conviction cluster

Six wallets deployed $38,154 toward Team Liquid, including two highly profitable bettors, while an extreme volume spike and thin liquidity make the coordinated positioning notable despite the subsequent price decline.

  • Six wallets bought Team Liquid for $38,154, an unusually large position relative to the market’s liquidity.
  • Two major participants have strong long-term records: 66% wins with $487,114 profit and 73% wins with $220,585 profit.
  • The trades averaged roughly 45¢ while Team Liquid now trades near 26¢, creating substantial upside if the group’s thesis is correct but also signaling meaningful adverse movement.

$38,154 on Team Liquid

Top Holders

  1. 0xfe78...0319 Outcome 21529631, $61,527 (65% win rate)
  2. 0xbb35...b62a Outcome 21529631, $19,652 (66% win rate)
  3. 0xde24...4ded Outcome 21529631, $5,459 (70% win rate)
  4. 0xec98...afcd Outcome 21529631, $4,616 (54% win rate)
  5. 0xb6b8...149b Outcome 21529631, $4,429 (57% win rate)
  6. 0xad69...7397 Outcome 21529631, $4,000 (48% win rate)
  7. 0x31a4...7afc Outcome 21529631, $4,000 (55% win rate)
  8. 0xdbaf...f5d1 Outcome 21529631, $3,707 (92% win rate)
  9. 0x3308...f04b Outcome 21529631, $2,925 (57% win rate)
  10. 0x076d...8d4c Outcome 21529631, $2,456 (65% win rate)

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PARIVISION wins in five

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Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

ResolvedDota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stage$91,489 tracked4 signalsEsportsDota 2GamesSports

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 5 match between Team Liquid and Aurora in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 1 against Aurora. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against Team Liquid. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 15, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Notable Trades

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

8d ago

$48,462 on Aurora at 57¢

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

8d ago

$1,500 on Team Liquid at 42¢

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

8d ago

$3,373 on Aurora at 50¢

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

8d ago

$38,154 on Team Liquid at 45¢

Related Theses