Part of: Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
This prediction market covers the Game 1 winner between Natus Vincere and Aurora in the Dota 2 DreamLeague Playoffs Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 4. It resolves to the team that wins Game 1, with resolution scheduled for May 19, 2026; PolySpotter is tracking $2,587 in smart money across 2 signals, including recent sharp activity on both Natus Vincere and Aurora.
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $73,169.
Categories: Esports, Dota 2, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
90% winner buying underdog
A highly profitable 90% win-rate wallet bought Aurora, backed by serial cross-market success and broader one-sided Aurora flow, though the price has since moved against the entry.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $209,816 lifetime.
- They are a serial esports trader across 62 events with a 90% win rate.
- Five wallets bought Aurora for $22,006, creating one-sided flow behind the same outcome.
$1,387 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 90%
92% sharp backing Aurora
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet bought Aurora alongside one-sided cluster flow, despite the price moving against its 44¢ entry.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved positions and is up $472k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 195 events with the same 92% hit rate.
- Five wallets bought Aurora in the same direction for $22k total, and market volume spiked 17.5x.
$1,200 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 92%
New profitable esports whale
A 19-hour-old wallet is making repeat large bets after an early profitable win, with a 25x pre-event volume spike adding support.
- This 19-hour-old wallet has already placed $12.9k in flagged bets and is up about $4k on its first resolved trade.
- The bettor put $8k on Aurora at 50¢, a meaningful single-position bet even in an active market.
- Market activity is running about 25x above normal before the match, suggesting broader pre-event interest.
$8,000 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 100%
92% winner backing Aurora
Elite esports bettor with a 92% resolved win rate and $472k profit bought Aurora at 53¢, making the wallet track record the main signal despite modest trade size.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $472k lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record across 195 events and $860k in volume.
- Entry at 53¢ suggests they see Aurora as meaningfully undervalued in Game 1.
$1,995 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 92%
New profitable esports whale
A 6-day-old wallet with repeated large profitable bets and a 5-0 resolved record bought nearly $5k of Natus Vincere at 49¢.
- This new bettor is 5-for-5 on resolved trades and is up $53k so far.
- They have now triggered 17 large-bet alerts, totaling $56.7k in flagged activity.
- The $5k buy at 49¢ shows conviction despite the market now pricing Natus Vincere around 46¢.
$4,985 on Natus Vincere | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp cluster piled into favorite
Strong one-sided Natus Vincere flow from seven wallets includes two exceptionally profitable sharp bettors and coincides with a major pre-event price move from the high-50s/low-60s to 94%.
- Two proven bettors joined this move: one wins 97% of resolved bets and is up $258K, another wins 92% and is up $190K.
- Seven wallets bought the same side for $17.4K, pushing Natus Vincere from around 58–82¢ to 94¢.
- Market volume spiked 22x and Natus Vincere is up 46.5 percentage points on the day.
$17,390 on Natus Vincere
96% sharp scaling in
Elite 96% win-rate wallet with $2.39M lifetime profit bought $30k of Natus Vincere amid a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $2.39M lifetime.
- They put $30,000 on Natus Vincere, a large bet relative to recent market activity.
- This wallet is a proven serial cross-market trader, with 121 events and $6.2M traded.
$30,000 on Natus Vincere | Wallet win rate: 96%
Profitable serial esports trader
Profitable high-volume esports trader bought Natus Vincere into a major pre-event volume spike, suggesting a real directional thesis despite only moderate composite score.
- This bettor is up $109,857 lifetime across 719 resolved trades.
- They have traded 82 markets across 72 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Market activity spiked 1,255x before the match, and they entered Natus Vincere at 49¢.
$1,961 on Natus Vincere | Wallet win rate: 60%
90% winner backs Aurora
A highly profitable 90% win-rate wallet made a large Aurora buy that was 269% of the market's 24h volume, backed by a long cross-market track record.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $657K lifetime.
- The $6.3K Aurora buy was nearly 3x this market’s entire 24h volume.
- This wallet has traded 334 markets across 184 events with the same 90% hit rate.
$6,251 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0xd3b0...329e — Outcome 54910916, $26,500 (61% win rate)
- 0xffe9...a70e — Outcome 54910916, $24,590 (47% win rate)
- 0x4183...96bf — Outcome 54910916, $15,926 (100% win rate)
- 0xf070...ac55 — Outcome 54910916, $11,802 (90% win rate)
- 0x507e...beae — Outcome 54910916, $10,943 (50% win rate)
- 0x5922...3388 — Outcome 16804072, $8,421 (68% win rate)
- 0xbb35...b62a — Outcome 54910916, $7,690 (53% win rate)
- 0x04f6...f24a — Outcome 54910916, $6,644 (56% win rate)
- 0xd06c...cdaf — Outcome 16804072, $6,497 (92% win rate)
- 0xa1e4...4f8a — Outcome 54910916, $6,490 (92% win rate)
