Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will set a new all-time high by December 31, 2026, using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high prices as the resolution source. The market resolves Yes if any qualifying 1-minute candle posts a higher high than every previous Binance 1-minute candle high; otherwise it resolves No. It is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, and currently has $6,642 in tracked smart money activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $25,976.
Categories: ATH, Bitcoin, Crypto Prices, Crypto
Notable Trades
Proven cross-market grinder
A high-volume veteran with a 71% win rate across 11k+ resolved bets made a sizable buy on No in a long-dated BTC ATH market, and the trade was large relative to recent volume.
- This bettor has won 7,937 of 11,188 resolved bets and is up about $57k overall
- They trade heavily across 161 events, suggesting a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
- The $6.6k order was 170% of this market's recent 24h volume, showing real conviction at 83¢ on No
$6,642 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Sharp crypto thesis bettor
A proven profitable wallet with a 78% win rate is making a sizable cross-market crypto thesis bet here, and the trade is large relative to this market’s quiet recent volume.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades across 134 bets and is up $8.5k overall.
- They traded across 4 related markets with a $67k total crypto event position, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- This $7.4k order was nearly 2x the market’s 24-hour volume, showing real conviction in a relatively quiet book.
$7,443 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
78% win-rate BTC thesis
A high-volume cross-market bettor with a 78% win rate is making a fresh directional BTC thesis by effectively buying Yes at 18¢ across this event.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades across 134 markets and has deployed nearly $1.0M total
- They’ve traded 4 markets in this same BTC event for $64.6k total, which points to a deliberate event-wide thesis
- This trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 18¢, a low price for a long-dated upside bet
$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable BTC thesis trader
A historically profitable crypto-event trader with a 78% win rate sold No at 84¢, which converts to buying Yes at 16¢, making a sizable bet across four related BTC ATH markets.
- This bettor wins 78% of their resolved trades across 134 markets and is up $8.5k overall
- They made a $6.9k buy-equivalent bet on Yes at 16¢ by selling No at 84¢, implying they see the odds as too low
- They have placed $66.5k across 4 related Bitcoin all-time-high markets, showing a coordinated long-term thesis
$6,891 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Top Holders
- 0x8b4b...541b — No, $71,556 (82% win rate)
- 0x30aa...2bdd — Yes, $28,428
- 0x58f5...be7b — Yes, $27,191
- 0xe0d3...13d7 — Yes, $21,043 (0% win rate)
- 0x83b9...c672 — Yes, $20,128
- 0xa5bf...8763 — Yes, $18,640
- 0x64ad...ca63 — No, $18,273
- 0x245e...183c — Yes, $13,567
- 0xfc08...6be7 — Yes, $12,280 (89% win rate)
- 0xf207...74d5 — Yes, $11,652
