Part of: Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca
This prediction market covers the Roland Garros ATP match between Casper Ruud and Joao Fonseca, scheduled for May 31, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. It resolves to the player who advances, with final resolution expected by June 7, 2026 if the match is completed within the allowed window. PolySpotter is tracking $2,200 in smart money across 1 signal, with recent alerts showing sharp-wallet interest on both Ruud and Fonseca.
This market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Joao Fonseca in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 31, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Joao Fonseca. This market will resolve to 'Joao Fonseca' if Joao Fonseca advances against Casper Ruud. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
35 smart money signals detected, totaling $213,774.
Categories: Sports, Tennis, Games
Notable Trades
Profitable whale with cluster
A highly profitable, high-volume sports trader bought Casper Ruud alongside a 6-wallet one-sided cluster and a pre-event volume/price spike.
- This bettor has won 70% of over 10,000 resolved bets and is up $14.2M lifetime.
- Six wallets bought Casper Ruud the same way, totaling about $20K in one-sided flow.
- Ruud saw a fast 16-point upward move during a 12x volume spike, though the price has since pulled back below this trader’s 44¢ entry.
$1,709 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 70%
Six-wallet Ruud buy wave
Surfacing because six wallets bought Casper Ruud in the same direction with a $20k coordinated flow, alongside a huge-volume profitable sports wallet and a pre-match volume spike.
- Six wallets bought Casper Ruud together, totaling about $20k on the same side.
- The featured bettor is a very high-volume trader up $3.2M lifetime across over 39k resolved bets.
- Ruud was bought at 44¢, but the market has since fallen to 36¢, giving a cheaper entry than this wallet paid.
$3,076 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 56%
92% winner joins Ruud flow
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet bought Casper Ruud amid one-sided clustered flow and a major volume spike, though the market has since moved sharply against the entry.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $140k lifetime.
- 7 wallets bought Casper Ruud the same way, totaling nearly $49k in one-sided flow.
- Ruud is now trading far below this bettor’s 57¢ entry, making the copy price cheaper but against recent momentum.
$2,200 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 92%
92% winner fading Ruud
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet is fading Casper Ruud by selling at 40¢, equivalent to buying Joao Fonseca around 60¢.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $140k lifetime.
- They are a serial sports trader across 591 events with over $1.19M bet.
- Selling Casper at 40¢ is equivalent to backing Joao Fonseca at about 60¢.
$1,393 on Joao Fonseca | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable serial sports bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 65% resolved win rate is buying Fonseca at 62¢ in a highly active tennis market.
- This bettor has won 65% of 226 resolved trades and is up $20.9K lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market history across 32 events, suggesting this is part of a repeatable betting process.
- Entry at 62¢ is slightly below the current 64¢ market price, implying the trade is still copyable if liquidity holds.
$1,760 on Joao Fonseca | Wallet win rate: 65%
Proven sharp buying underdog
A highly profitable 75% lifetime tennis/sports-style bettor is effectively buying Casper Ruud at 25¢ alongside 10-wallet one-sided flow into the same outcome.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved positions and is up $1.39M lifetime.
- The trade is effectively a BUY on Casper Ruud at 25¢ after Ruud fell sharply over the past day.
- 10 wallets have all backed the same side, totaling $21.6K in Casper Ruud buys.
$1,515 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 75%
Sharp joins Ruud cluster
A highly profitable 84% winner effectively backed Casper Ruud, with 10-wallet same-side flow and a 20x volume spike supporting the move.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved positions and is up about $190k lifetime.
- They effectively backed Casper Ruud at 35¢, while the market is now around 24–25¢.
- Ten wallets have bet the same Ruud side for $21.6k during a 20x volume spike.
$1,301 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 84%
95% winner joins Fonseca cluster
Elite 95% win-rate wallet with nearly $2M lifetime profit bought Joao Fonseca amid coordinated one-sided flow and a major price move.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $1.94M lifetime.
- Seven wallets bought the same side, totaling $16.7K on Joao Fonseca.
- They entered at 65¢ before the market moved to 76¢, showing fast confirmation.
$1,709 on Joao Fonseca | Wallet win rate: 95%
Elite sharp buying Fonseca
Elite 94% winner with $1.17M profit is buying Fonseca alongside one-sided cluster flow and a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved bets and is up $1.17M lifetime.
- They have traded 223 related sports events with the same 94% hit rate.
- Seven wallets are all buying Fonseca, with $16.7K flowing the same way.
$1,147 on Joao Fonseca | Wallet win rate: 94%
7-wallet Fonseca steam
High-score coordinated Fonseca flow with 7 wallets, a volume spike, and a 21-point price move outweighs the individual wallet’s weak lifetime P&L.
- 7 wallets all backed Fonseca in the same window for $16.7k total.
- The move had real impact: Ruud dropped 21 points and Fonseca is now trading around 76¢.
- This specific wallet is not a proven winner, so the signal is the coordinated flow rather than the individual bettor.
$1,417 on Joao Fonseca | Wallet win rate: 61%
Top Holders
- 0x1136...0c2e — Casper Ruud, $215,765 (50% win rate)
- 0x1925...4654 — Casper Ruud, $134,269 (46% win rate)
- 0x19e2...ce3c — Casper Ruud, $99,919 (46% win rate)
- 0xcd65...ee96 — Joao Fonseca, $93,847 (93% win rate)
- 0xf284...b9f9 — Casper Ruud, $90,357 (88% win rate)
- 0xefdd...017f — Joao Fonseca, $68,946 (96% win rate)
- 0xc6b1...78fd — Joao Fonseca, $53,354 (94% win rate)
- 0x42c9...9623 — Joao Fonseca, $48,327 (50% win rate)
- 0x0dcf...c556 — Casper Ruud, $47,401 (94% win rate)
- 0x27f7...44b0 — Joao Fonseca, $27,104 (88% win rate)
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