Part of: UEFA Europa Conference League: Winner
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,742.
Categories: Soccer, Europa Conference League, Sports, UECL
Notable Trades
89% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with an 89% resolved win rate and strong positive P&L bought Rayo Vallecano Yes at 36¢ in a liquid sports futures market.
- This bettor has won 25 of 28 resolved positions and is up about $5,953 lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 36¢, below the current 38¢ market price.
- Entry at 36¢ implies a potential 2.8x payout if Rayo wins.
$1,646 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable new arbitrage wallet
A very new but already profitable wallet appears to have exploited a major Yes/No mispricing, buying both sides below $1 with a larger lean toward No.
- This 10-day-old wallet is already up $25.5K and has been flagged 12 times for large bets.
- The trader bought both Yes and No cheaply, suggesting they spotted a pricing inefficiency rather than making a simple directional bet.
- Their larger position was No at 39¢, well below the current 62¢ market price.
$3,848 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable new wallet net-long YES
A 10-day-old profitable wallet with repeated large-bet flags put $7.8k into a relatively quiet Rayo market and is net long Yes despite a small hedge.
- This new wallet is only 10 days old but is already up $25.5k with repeated large-bet alerts.
- The bettor put $7.8k into this market, mostly buying Yes around 39–40¢.
- This trade was nearly the size of the market’s recent quiet-volume baseline, suggesting strong conviction.
$7,848 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable new repeat whale
A very new but already profitable repeat large bettor is adding $4k to Yes around 39¢ on a sports futures market.
- This 10-day-old wallet is already up $25.5k and has been flagged for 9 large bets.
- They bought $4k of Yes around 39¢, implying a strong view that Rayo’s true chances are higher than the market price.
- The market is not extremely deep, so a $4k entry is meaningful against about $31.7k of liquidity.
$4,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
95% winner on thin market
Surface because a highly proven bettor with a 95% record and positive lifetime P&L bought a meaningful Yes position in a quiet market.
- This bettor has won 95% of 451 resolved positions and is up $3,709 lifetime.
- The $1,400 buy was larger than the market’s entire 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet book.
- Entry at 35¢ implies they see Rayo as underpriced despite the market drifting down this week.
$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 72925472, $1,819,240
- 0x05d9...ecd7 — Outcome 12612798, $14,920 (74% win rate)
- 0x19e2...ce3c — Outcome 12612798, $8,082 (46% win rate)
- 0xcda3...b523 — Outcome 12612798, $5,081 (33% win rate)
- 0x56ce...590a — Outcome 12612798, $4,547 (90% win rate)
- 0xcc20...0522 — Outcome 12612798, $3,970 (95% win rate)
- 0x6ca3...590f — Outcome 12612798, $1,411 (71% win rate)
- 0x92f5...458f — Outcome 12612798, $1,166 (83% win rate)
- 0x851a...e06a — Outcome 12612798, $768
- 0x3a80...49bf — Outcome 12612798, $674
