Part of: SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño

Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-12?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,282.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, Copa Libertadores

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor exits before collapse

A proven 84% bettor with a substantial edge exited a prior Palmeiras Yes position around 88¢ before the market collapsed, while cross-market activity and a major volume spike reinforce the No thesis.

This bettor wins 84% of 225 resolved trades and has earned nearly $39,000.
They sold Palmeiras Yes around 88¢ after holding the position, avoiding a collapse to near zero.
The market saw a 125x historical volume spike, and this serial trader has positioned across 35 events.

$2,342 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Nine-wallet contrarian No cluster

A nine-wallet No cluster and 38x volume spike make this a notable contrarian trade, though the bettor’s record does not clearly outperform the odds and the market has since moved sharply against No.

Nine wallets bought No for a combined $23,265, creating a concentrated contrarian signal against the 90% Yes price.
Trading volume reached 38.1 times its historical average, while the No price moved 24 percentage points during the alert window.
The lead bettor has a 73% win rate across 1,033 resolved bets, but that is below the 80¢ average winning entry price and does not prove a strong edge here.

$6,299 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Coordinated early Palmeiras buying

Four wallets committed $8,567 to Yes during a 38x volume spike, with the market subsequently rising 14.5% and one participant showing a large profitable history.

Four wallets bought $8,567 of Yes while the outcome was priced at just 45–58¢, before it moved to about 90¢.
The market saw a 38x historical volume spike and a 14.5% one-day price increase, supporting the coordinated-buying signal.
One participating serial trader has an 88% win rate across 4,200 resolved bets and is up $371,535 lifetime.

$8,567 on Yes

91% serial cross-market bettor

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding to an existing Palmeiras Yes position at 76%, though the trade offers only moderate evidence of edge.

This bettor has won 91% of 404 resolved trades and is up $7,921 overall.
The wallet has traded across 30 events and is adding to its existing Palmeiras Yes position at 76%.
The market is liquid and already prices Yes at 76%, so the signal is credible but not a deep-value entry.

$1,073 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

0x2c33...0563 — Outcome 63815596, $21,210 (60% win rate)
0xc3c3...eec8 — Outcome 63815596, $7,500 (99% win rate)
0x44c5...8d45 — Outcome 63815596, $2,324 (78% win rate)
0xa902...d159 — Outcome 63815596, $2,222 (84% win rate)
0xebc0...5806 — Outcome 63815596, $2,034 (74% win rate)
0xe8e0...7eec — Outcome 63815596, $1,523 (85% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 94211054, $1,470
0x1510...fe91 — Outcome 63815596, $1,412 (91% win rate)
0xe6bf...16b9 — Outcome 63815596, $1,370 (92% win rate)
0xcfef...0f2b — Outcome 63815596, $1,337 (93% win rate)

Related Theses

Brazil-Haiti exceeds four goals

Covers 2 related markets

Cruzeiro-Flamengo stays under 2.5 goals

Covers 1 related market

Palmeiras Chapecoense stays low-scoring

Covers 1 related market

Palmeiras will not win on August 12

Covers 1 related market

Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-12?

ResolvedSE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño$18,282 tracked4 signalsSportsGamesSoccerCopa Libertadores

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 12, 2026 If SE Palmeiras wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.