Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
This Bitcoin prediction market asks whether BTC/USDT will reach $40,000 or lower at any point from November 24, 2025, through December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if a Binance one-minute candle records a Low price of $40,000 or less; otherwise, it resolves No on January 1, 2027. The market has $4,028 in tracked smart money and five recent smart-money alerts, including signals buying both Yes and No.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
34 smart money signals detected, totaling $166,967.
Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto
Notable Trades
Perfect-record BTC bear
A perfect-record wallet with positive lifetime P&L is expressing a broad bearish BTC thesis across 7 related markets, with this SELL No converting to BUY Yes at 30¢.
- This bettor has won all 105 resolved bets and is up $49k lifetime.
- They have placed $116k across 7 related Bitcoin dip markets, showing a broad bearish thesis.
- Selling No at 70¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 30¢, a bet that BTC touches $40k before 2027.
$4,028 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
Perfect-record BTC bear
A perfect-record wallet with positive lifetime P&L is expressing a broad bearish BTC thesis across 7 related markets, with this SELL No converting to BUY Yes at 30¢.
- This bettor has won all 105 resolved bets and is up $49k lifetime.
- They have placed $116k across 7 related Bitcoin dip markets, showing a broad bearish thesis.
- Selling No at 70¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 30¢, a bet that BTC touches $40k before 2027.
$2,854 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
Perfect-record BTC bear
A perfect-record wallet with positive lifetime P&L is expressing a broad bearish BTC thesis across 7 related markets, with this SELL No converting to BUY Yes at 30¢.
- This bettor has won all 105 resolved bets and is up $49k lifetime.
- They have placed $116k across 7 related Bitcoin dip markets, showing a broad bearish thesis.
- Selling No at 70¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 30¢, a bet that BTC touches $40k before 2027.
$1,034 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
Perfect-record BTC bear
A perfect-record wallet with positive lifetime P&L is expressing a broad bearish BTC thesis across 7 related markets, with this SELL No converting to BUY Yes at 30¢.
- This bettor has won all 105 resolved bets and is up $49k lifetime.
- They have placed $116k across 7 related Bitcoin dip markets, showing a broad bearish thesis.
- Selling No at 70¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 30¢, a bet that BTC touches $40k before 2027.
$1,119 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
Perfect-record BTC bear
A perfect-record wallet with positive lifetime P&L is expressing a broad bearish BTC thesis across 7 related markets, with this SELL No converting to BUY Yes at 30¢.
- This bettor has won all 105 resolved bets and is up $49k lifetime.
- They have placed $116k across 7 related Bitcoin dip markets, showing a broad bearish thesis.
- Selling No at 70¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 30¢, a bet that BTC touches $40k before 2027.
$1,119 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
86% winner fading BTC crash
Sharp profitable wallet with an 86% resolved win rate is building a cross-market Bitcoin downside thesis, buying No on the $40k dip market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $9.3k lifetime.
- They have put $17.1k across 3 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 67¢ means they are betting Bitcoin avoids a drop to $40k before 2027.
$4,097 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
83% winner buying BTC dip
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 83% win rate and +$413k lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes on a Bitcoin $40k dip by selling No.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $413k lifetime.
- They are a major cross-market trader, with $5.0M deployed across 209 markets.
- Selling No at 63¢ is the same as buying Yes at 37¢, matching the current ask.
$3,165 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
99% winner in 18-wallet cluster
Surface this: a 99% winning wallet tied to an 18-wallet funded cluster is effectively buying Yes across related Bitcoin dip markets.
- This bettor has won 103 of 104 resolved bets and is up $76,340 lifetime.
- 18 wallets share the same funder, suggesting coordinated positioning on this Bitcoin-dip thesis.
- Selling No at 68¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 32¢, with related-market activity totaling about $49,368.
$1,087 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
Profitable BTC downside stack
A profitable wallet is building a cross-market Bitcoin downside thesis across four related markets, though this specific trade is modest and already slightly underwater.
- This wallet has built a $39.7k position across 4 related Bitcoin dip markets.
- The bettor is up $45.6k on $192k invested, despite a small resolved-bet sample.
- They bought Yes at 33¢, implying a view that a $40k BTC dip is underpriced.
$2,479 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 44%
Profitable BTC dip thesis
Profitable wallet is building a cross-market Bitcoin downside thesis, with $36.9k positioned across four related markets despite this single trade being modest.
- This wallet is up $45.6k lifetime and is betting across 4 related Bitcoin dip markets.
- They have $36.9k tied to the same broader BTC downside thesis, not just this one trade.
- Yes odds are already up 9 points this week, suggesting momentum is moving with the bet.
$1,038 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 44%
Top Holders
- 0x1465...7072 — No, $194,759 (93% win rate)
- 0xafa2...0611 — Yes, $70,968 (50% win rate)
- 0x6db9...4ab5 — No, $69,634 (83% win rate)
- 0x825a...8835 — Yes, $65,440 (84% win rate)
- 0x8b4b...541b — No, $59,420 (84% win rate)
- 0x861f...177d — Yes, $52,978 (44% win rate)
- 0x8bbe...b9dc — No, $40,200
- 0x3f3b...1d77 — Yes, $28,346 (48% win rate)
- 0x86ab...e5be — No, $24,559 (86% win rate)
- 0x66ad...cc4e — No, $22,536 (91% win rate)
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