Part of: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?
This Polymarket market asks whether the active-month WTI Crude Oil futures contract will reach a 1-minute candle high of $105 or more at any point during May 2026. It resolves after the May trading window, with final settlement scheduled for June 1, 2026, using Pyth-published prices without rounding. PolySpotter currently tracks $2,158 in smart money activity and 1 signal on this oil price prediction market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract’s last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract’s last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,883.
Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Commodities, Oil
Notable Trades
Profitable oil cross-market whale
A high-volume cross-market oil bettor is taking the No side across a 12-market event despite only a 41% historical win rate, with substantial lifetime profit and nearly $395k deployed in related markets.
- This whale is up $132k lifetime and has put nearly $395k across 12 related oil markets.
- They are buying No at 20¢ after the Yes price jumped 17 points today, suggesting a contrarian view on the spike.
- The wallet has a low 41% win rate, but its $9.4M of prior volume and positive profit make the position worth tracking.
$2,158 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%
Profitable new oil bettor
An 11-day-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early profits is buying Yes across related WTI markets after a sharp price move.
- This new wallet is already up $13.5k after only 11 days of activity.
- It has now triggered 20 large-bet alerts totaling $48.9k, suggesting repeat conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- The bettor is positioned across 4 related WTI markets while this market is up 17 points in the past day.
$2,023 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
88% oil thesis trader
Sharp high-volume trader with an 88% record and $168k profit is adding to a cross-market WTI oil thesis across four related markets.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $168,677 lifetime.
- They have positioned across 4 related WTI markets with nearly $30,000 tied to the same event.
- Yes is being bought at 78¢ after a 10-point one-day move, suggesting continued conviction despite the rally.
$1,190 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
$88K oil thesis
Profitable wallet is building a large cross-market WTI thesis, with $88.7k across 10 related markets and fresh Yes exposure here.
- This bettor is up about $60k lifetime and has put $88.7k across 10 related WTI markets.
- They added Yes at 74¢ as this market moved up 8 percentage points over the last day.
- The broad positioning suggests a coordinated oil-price thesis rather than a one-off small bet.
$1,186 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 47%
Profitable oil thesis wallet
Profitable repeat wallet is building a cross-market oil thesis, buying Yes here while positioned across 7 related WTI markets for $53k total.
- This repeat bettor is up about $22k lifetime and has been flagged 13 times before.
- They are building a broader WTI oil thesis across 7 related markets, with $53k positioned in the same event.
- Entry around 73¢ suggests conviction that WTI has a strong chance to touch $105 in May.
$3,371 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Macro whale in 12-market WTI thesis
A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broad WTI thesis across 12 related markets with $373K positioned, though this specific leg is modest.
- This high-volume bettor is positioned across 12 related WTI markets with $373K committed.
- The wallet is up about $124K lifetime across $9.4M traded.
- Entry at 46¢ on No implies they are fading WTI hitting $105 in May.
$1,955 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%
Top Holders
- 0xe36f...cd91 — Yes, $40,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x72a0...c059 — No, $26,034 (47% win rate)
- 0xe734...4f0c — No, $24,912 (41% win rate)
- 0x4488...e319 — No, $10,000 (54% win rate)
- 0xafc0...5087 — Yes, $8,746 (63% win rate)
- 0x1664...a0ce — Yes, $7,672
- 0xac9b...d4c5 — No, $6,644 (36% win rate)
- 0x877f...7acb — No, $6,500 (65% win rate)
- 0xa80e...b94b — No, $6,446 (44% win rate)
- 0xbc01...d914 — No, $5,922
Related Theses
Oil spikes but stays capped
Covers 4 related markets
