Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,200.

Notable Trades

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?

A proven high-volume bettor with an 86% win rate is buying into this geopolitics market, making the trade worth watching despite only a single signal.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 148 markets and is up about $167k lifetime
  • They have traded 150 markets across 105 events, which suggests a repeatable event-driven process rather than a one-off punt
  • They bought Yes at 80¢ in a liquid market, signaling conviction that the conflict will cool enough to meet the resolution rules

$3,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $53,308 (72% win rate)
  2. 0x7401...87c5 No, $27,218
  3. 0x2d72...cca4 No, $26,200
  4. 0xe52c...6924 Yes, $26,103 (86% win rate)
  5. 0xbacd...ab35 No, $12,027 (49% win rate)
  6. 0xdc4b...dbca Yes, $12,000
  7. 0xdcc0...22e1 Yes, $11,944
  8. 0x7f9e...3a0e Yes, $9,273 (82% win rate)
  9. 0x5835...3bee No, $8,845
  10. 0x8072...0ef3 Yes, $8,255

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?

90d$3,200 tracked1 signalMiddle EastIranWorldTrumpIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIsrael x Iran
Yes
83¢
No
18¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

Notable Trades

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?

4h ago

$3,200 on Yes at 80¢

80¢83¢3¢

Related Theses

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | PolySpotter