Part of: Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle
Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle
This Polymarket prediction market covers the Antalya 4 tennis match between Rositsa Dencheva and Maria Lourdes Carle, scheduled for September 11, 2026. It resolves to the player who advances; the provided metadata does not include live odds, but tracks $1,520 in smart-money activity across one signal.
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $40,266.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor adds to underdog
A proven, highly profitable bettor with a 78% win rate and substantial edge added to an existing underdog position despite the market moving against it.
- This bettor has won 78% of 72 resolved trades and is up $74,265 overall.
- They added $1,500 to Maria Lourdes Carle at 30¢, on top of an existing $8,000 position, despite the market now pricing her at 16%.
- The 32-percentage-point edge over average implied odds makes this a notable contrarian position, though the price has moved sharply against them.
$1,520 on Maria Lourdes Carle | Wallet win rate: 77%
Sharp bettor adds to underdog
A proven, highly profitable bettor with a 78% win rate and substantial edge added to an existing underdog position despite the market moving against it.
- This bettor has won 78% of 72 resolved trades and is up $74,265 overall.
- They added $1,500 to Maria Lourdes Carle at 30¢, on top of an existing $8,000 position, despite the market now pricing her at 16%.
- The 32-percentage-point edge over average implied odds makes this a notable contrarian position, though the price has moved sharply against them.
$1,500 on Maria Lourdes Carle | Wallet win rate: 77%
Veteran trader buys major breakout
A highly experienced trader with over 71,000 resolved bets made a concentrated purchase as Rositsa Dencheva broke 30 percentage points above its historical range.
- This trader has placed bets across 2,428 events and is up $6.65 million lifetime.
- A $5,402 purchase pushed Rositsa Dencheva to 84%, roughly 30 percentage points above its prior historical range.
- The position is meaningful but not extremely illiquid, with $112,438 in liquidity and a 2¢ spread.
$5,402 on Rositsa Dencheva | Wallet win rate: 70%
30-point tennis odds breakout
A $2,294 purchase coincided with a 30-point breakout in Rositsa Dencheva's odds, creating a notable momentum signal despite the wallet's only moderate win rate.
- A single $2,294 bet helped push Rositsa Dencheva from the historical 49–55% range to about 84%.
- The wallet has placed more than $281 million in bets and is up $3.68 million overall, though its 55% win rate is not exceptionally sharp.
- Rositsa Dencheva was bought at 85¢, implying the bettor viewed the late repricing as justified.
$2,294 on Rositsa Dencheva | Wallet win rate: 55%
Sharp wallet in three-wallet Carle cluster
A $23,450 coordinated bet on Carle is backed by one highly profitable sharp wallet and an extreme volume spike, though all three wallets were adding to existing positions that have moved sharply against them.
- Three wallets bought $23,450 of Carle, representing most of the market’s recent trading volume.
- The strongest wallet wins 78% of 72 resolved positions and is up $74,265, with entries averaging 46% odds.
- All three wallets were adding to existing Carle positions after the price fell to 19%, so this is conviction but not a fresh position.
$23,450 on Maria Lourdes Carle
93% win-rate serial bettor
A highly proven serial bettor with a 93% win rate and substantial positive edge made a fresh $2,000 purchase at 49% in a near-even tennis market.
- This bettor wins 93% of 2,639 resolved positions and is up $2.28 million.
- The wallet bought Rositsa Dencheva at 49%, while the market has since moved to 52%.
- The $2,000 position is a meaningful fresh bet in a relatively low-volume match market.
$2,000 on Rositsa Dencheva | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% win-rate serial bettor
A highly proven serial bettor with a 93% win rate and substantial positive edge made a fresh $2,000 purchase at 49% in a near-even tennis market.
- This bettor wins 93% of 2,639 resolved positions and is up $2.28 million.
- The wallet bought Rositsa Dencheva at 49%, while the market has since moved to 52%.
- The $2,000 position is a meaningful fresh bet in a relatively low-volume match market.
$2,100 on Rositsa Dencheva | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% win-rate serial bettor
A highly proven serial bettor with a 93% win rate and substantial positive edge made a fresh $2,000 purchase at 49% in a near-even tennis market.
- This bettor wins 93% of 2,639 resolved positions and is up $2.28 million.
- The wallet bought Rositsa Dencheva at 49%, while the market has since moved to 52%.
- The $2,000 position is a meaningful fresh bet in a relatively low-volume match market.
$2,000 on Rositsa Dencheva | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0x565c...878d — Outcome 14444188, $8,371 (75% win rate)
- 0x5c50...e0c9 — Outcome 14444188, $8,000 (26% win rate)
- 0x87b1...7da1 — Outcome 14444188, $4,815 (100% win rate)
- 0xe146...83ee — Outcome 14444188, $2,550 (88% win rate)
- 0x2374...a426 — Outcome 14444188, $1,022 (88% win rate)
- 0xcfb2...126a — Outcome 14444188, $1,000 (66% win rate)
- 0x7079...58e8 — Outcome 14444188, $715
- 0x01c7...e995 — Outcome 14444188, $454 (60% win rate)
- 0xe06f...6743 — Outcome 14444188, $352
- 0x1d4a...5164 — Outcome 88608926, $281
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