Part of: Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,500.

Categories: Eurovision, Culture, Music, Celebrities, Rewards 300 4.5 50

Notable Trades

Profitable Eurovision cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume Eurovision bettor is taking a $4.1k cross-market Yes position on Finland in a relatively small market, though entries are above current price.

This bettor has a long track record with 1,321 resolved bets and is up $3.8k overall.
They put $4.1k on Finland Yes across three buys, a large position versus the market's $4.6k liquidity.
They are also active across two markets in the same Eurovision event, suggesting a broader thesis.

$4,140 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable event specialist adds Yes

Experienced profitable Eurovision bettor put $5.4k into Yes across thin order books, though their historical edge is modest and current price has moved against the entries.

This bettor has a long record: 1,321 resolved bets and about $3.8k in profit.
They put $5.4k on Yes across related Eurovision markets, a large move for a market with only about $8.1k traded in 24h.
Entry averaged around 70¢, while the market is now 58¢, so copy entry is cheaper than the trader’s fill.

$5,360 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 63189438, $11,070
0x6cff...c3da — Outcome 10229139, $1,524
0x4c0c...a55d — Outcome 10229139, $1,244 (87% win rate)
0x621f...7293 — Outcome 10229139, $1,000
0xb475...978c — Outcome 10229139, $556
0x94c4...43ca — Outcome 10229139, $483 (78% win rate)
0x9f92...2c2d — Outcome 10229139, $417 (40% win rate)
0x76dc...17b4 — Outcome 10229139, $405 (58% win rate)
0xb93c...a559 — Outcome 10229139, $350
0x319b...f04e — Outcome 10229139, $308

Related Theses

Ukraine or Romania wins Eurovision semi

Covers 2 related markets

Finland or Greece wins semi

Covers 2 related markets

Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

ResolvedEurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner$9,500 tracked2 signalsEurovisionCultureMusicCelebritiesRewards 300 4.5 50

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Notable Trades