What does the Bitcoin $35,000 prediction market measure?

It measures whether Bitcoin’s BTC/USDT price on Binance will reach $35,000 or lower before the end of 2026.

What price data determines the outcome?

The market uses the final Low price from Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candles. A Low of $35,000 or below triggers a Yes resolution.

When does the Bitcoin $35,000 market resolve?

The measurement window ends on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET, with the market scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.

What happens if Bitcoin never reaches $35,000?

The market resolves to No if no Binance one-minute BTC/USDT candle records a Low price of $35,000 or less during the specified period.

Where can I check the current odds?

Current Yes/No prediction market odds, trading activity, and smart-money signals are available on the live Polymarket market page.

Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

This Bitcoin prediction market asks whether BTC will reach $35,000 or lower by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if any Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle records a Low of $35,000 or less between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, otherwise it resolves No. Check the live market page for current Yes/No odds and trader activity.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

22 smart money signals detected, totaling $171,795.

Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto

Notable Trades

92% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved-bet win rate is making a sizable No bet on a relatively quiet BTC downside market.

This bettor has won 22 of 24 resolved bets and is up $4.2K lifetime.
They put $3.9K on No, far larger than recent activity in this market.
Entry at 82¢ means they are backing the view that BTC avoids a $35K dip before 2027.

$4,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%

94% winner buying BTC No

Sharp wallet with a 94% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a BTC downside market as part of a small cross-market crypto thesis.

This bettor has won 94% of 639 resolved trades and is up $10.2K lifetime.
They have put $5.5K across 2 related BTC markets, suggesting a consistent view rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 88¢ means they are backing Bitcoin to avoid a $35K dip through 2026.

$1,936 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

87% winner buys No

A highly proven wallet with 87% wins and +$45k lifetime profit bought No on a Bitcoin crash market, with related positioning across the event.

This bettor has won 87% of 594 resolved trades and is up $45k lifetime.
They are positioning across 2 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader crypto thesis.
Entry at 87¢ is a conservative bet that Bitcoin avoids a drop to $35k by the end of 2026.

$3,066 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

94% winner buying BTC dip

A profitable 94% lifetime winner is effectively buying Yes on a BTC $35k dip, with an $8.5k trade that exceeded the market's recent activity signal.

This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved markets and is up about $9.9k lifetime.
The $8.5k trade was larger than the detected 24h market activity, showing real conviction.
Selling No at 81¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 19¢, a low-cost bet on BTC touching $35k before 2027.

$8,514 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

92% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved-bet win rate is making a sizable No bet on a relatively quiet BTC downside market.

This bettor has won 22 of 24 resolved bets and is up $4.2K lifetime.
They put $3.9K on No, far larger than recent activity in this market.
Entry at 82¢ means they are backing the view that BTC avoids a $35K dip before 2027.

$3,923 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%

Profitable crypto cross-market bettor

Surfacing due to a profitable 455-bet wallet with a 75% win rate making a consistent cross-market Bitcoin downside fade across 3 related markets.

This bettor has won 75% of 455 resolved trades and is up $3.8k lifetime.
They have put $6.8k across 3 related Bitcoin markets, showing a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 81¢ means they are fading a Bitcoin drop to $35k before the end of 2026.

$1,315 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

New crypto whale buying Yes

A 3-day-old wallet is repeatedly making large, concentrated crypto bets, putting $14.4k toward Yes on a BTC $35k dip after $32k total flagged activity.

A 3-day-old wallet has now made $32k in flagged large bets, suggesting strong conviction rather than a one-off trade.
This $14.4k position is betting that Bitcoin will hit $35k by the end of 2026.
The trader’s average entry is around 33¢, while the market is now near 24¢, offering a cheaper copy entry.

$14,405 on Yes

New repeat BTC whale

A 20-day-old wallet is making its third sizable flagged bet, buying $4k of Yes on a relatively quiet BTC dip market, though its track record is still very limited.

This new wallet has now made about $15.7k in flagged large bets within its first 21 days.
The $4k buy was nearly 80% of recent market volume, showing concentrated conviction in a quiet period.
Entry at 27¢ implies they see Bitcoin dipping to $35k as underpriced versus the current 24¢ market.

$4,048 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

102-0 cross-market sharp

A 102-0 profitable wallet is moving across six related Bitcoin dip markets and this trade effectively backs Yes at about 21¢.

This bettor is 102-0 on resolved trades and up about $48.9K lifetime.
They have placed $61.7K across six related Bitcoin dip markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Selling No here is equivalent to buying Yes at 21¢, implying they see more downside risk than the market’s 20% odds.

$2,355 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%

New downside repeat bettor

Young repeat wallet is building a sizable BTC downside thesis across related markets, though it has no resolved track record yet.

This 8-day-old wallet has now triggered 9 large-bet alerts totaling $18.6k.
The bettor is also positioned across 2 related Bitcoin dip markets, suggesting a broader downside thesis.
Entry at 20¢ implies a 5x payout if Bitcoin touches $35k by end-2026.

$1,534 on Yes