Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals
This Polymarket covers the April 15 MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and St. Louis Cardinals, with shares resolving to the team that wins the game. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game or ends in a tie, it resolves 50-50. PolySpotter is currently tracking $2,055 in smart money activity on this market, including recent signals on both Cleveland and St. Louis.
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $90,974.
Categories: Sports, Games, MLB, baseball
Notable Trades
94% win-rate sports bettor
A bettor with an exceptional 94% win rate and strong edge sold Cleveland at 26¢, which translates to buying St. Louis around 74¢ in a liquid MLB market now trading 79¢.
- This bettor wins 94% of their trades and is up $29k across 100 resolved positions.
- They sold Cleveland at 26¢, which is equivalent to buying St. Louis at about 74¢.
- The market has already moved in their favor, with Cleveland dropping from 26¢ to 21¢ after the trade.
$2,055 on St. Louis Cardinals | Wallet win rate: 94%
89% win-rate sports sharp
A very high-performing sports trader with an 89% win rate and $2.2M profit bought St. Louis at 90¢ in a market seeing an unusual pregame volume spike and upward price move.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $2.2M across 1,259 settled positions.
- They trade heavily across sports and events — 824 markets over 609 events — which makes this look like a proven repeatable edge, not a one-off bet.
- They bought St. Louis at 90¢ as volume ran 62x above normal and the price jumped 17 points, showing strong late confidence behind the favorite.
$1,160 on St. Louis Cardinals | Wallet win rate: 89%
Sharp bettor on volume spike
A highly proven sports-style trader with a 72% win rate and $2.0M profit made an $8.5k buy in a market seeing a major pre-game volume spike and a meaningful move toward St. Louis.
- This bettor wins 72% of 3,280 resolved trades and is up $2.0M lifetime.
- They bought $8.5k of St. Louis at 87¢ as this market saw a 62x jump in activity.
- The price moved up nearly 17 points toward St. Louis, backing the same direction as the trade.
$8,477 on St. Louis Cardinals | Wallet win rate: 71%
Sharp bettor bought breakout
A highly profitable serial sports trader with a 72% win rate bought St. Louis at 72¢ ahead of a major volume and price breakout, and the market has already moved sharply in their favor to 90¢.
- This bettor has won 2,349 of 3,280 resolved trades and is up $2.0M lifetime.
- They bought St. Louis at 72¢, and the price has already jumped to 90¢ after a 77x volume spike.
- This wallet trades across 854 markets and 331 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
$5,180 on St. Louis Cardinals | Wallet win rate: 71%
Sharp bettor buys Cardinals
A proven high-volume sports bettor with a 74% win rate sold Cleveland at 48¢, which translates to buying St. Louis at 52¢, making this a followable sharp position despite only one signal.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up about $179k across 278 settled markets.
- The trade was effectively a buy on St. Louis at 52¢ after selling Cleveland at 48¢.
- This came from a serial cross-market trader active across 510 events and $4.5M of volume.
$1,879 on St. Louis Cardinals | Wallet win rate: 74%
Sharp cluster buys Cardinals
Three wallets put $17.2k on the Cardinals during a 61x volume spike, including a serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate, making this coordinated sports flow worth watching despite mixed wallet quality.
- Three wallets piled $17.2k into the Cardinals in a coordinated burst while market volume ran 61x above normal.
- One wallet wins 74% of resolved bets across 546 markets and sold Guardians, reinforcing the same Cardinals view.
- They entered around 51-52¢ while the market now sits near 44¢, offering a better follow price than the original trade.
$17,248 on St. Louis Cardinals
97% win-rate sports bettor
A proven sharp sports bettor with a 97% win rate bought Cleveland at 49¢ before the market moved to 56% during a major pregame volume surge.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and is up $256k across 100 settled positions.
- They bought Cleveland at 49¢ and the market is already up to 56%, showing immediate confirmation.
- This wallet has traded 47 markets across 46 events with the same strong results, not just a one-off hit.
$1,452 on Cleveland Guardians | Wallet win rate: 97%
Serial sports bettor buy
A high-volume serial sports trader with 2,385 resolved bets bought Cardinals at 51¢ during a major pregame volume surge, making this a reasonable sharp-bettor signal despite only moderate edge.
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,498 wins in 2,385 resolved bets and about $92k profit
- They bought the Cardinals at 51¢ during a 53x jump in market activity, suggesting real pregame positioning
- The market is liquid and active, so this looks like a deliberate price-taking bet rather than random noise
$5,318 on St. Louis Cardinals | Wallet win rate: 64%
Linked sharp cluster on Cardinals
Four wallets, three of them linked, piled $13.4k into the Cardinals at 50-51¢, led by a wallet with a 95% win rate and massive realized profits, making this coordinated flow worth following despite the liquid market.
- A wallet that wins 95% of its bets and has realized profits near $22.9M led this buy at 50-51¢.
- Four wallets bought the same side within seconds, and three share a funder, which points to coordinated conviction.
- The market was near a coin flip when they entered, so buying at 50¢ suggests they see St. Louis as clearly mispriced.
$13,361 on St. Louis Cardinals
Linked whale cluster on Cleveland
A linked-wallet cluster is piling $21.7k into Cleveland at 50¢, led by a very active bettor with $1.68M realized profit and activity across 246 markets.
- Three linked wallets all bought Cleveland at 50¢ for $21.7k total, with one wallet supplying nearly the entire size.
- The lead wallet has traded 437 resolved markets and is up $1.68M, suggesting this is more than random game-day flow.
- This hit during a huge volume burst on the market, with activity running 2,239x the historical average.
$21,670 on Cleveland Guardians
Top Holders
- 0x7a88...41cc — Outcome 13412418, $31,223 (48% win rate)
- 0x8a67...e403 — Outcome 13412418, $30,390 (75% win rate)
- 0x37c1...c53a — Outcome 13412418, $8,944 (67% win rate)
- 0xd106...c79c — Outcome 13412418, $6,377 (53% win rate)
- 0xc33a...3da3 — Outcome 13412418, $5,867 (97% win rate)
- 0x0507...1eb1 — Outcome 13412418, $4,850
- 0xa6e3...6dfe — Outcome 13412418, $4,170 (91% win rate)
- 0x3625...1187 — Outcome 13412418, $3,940 (98% win rate)
- 0xd1ed...d7cb — Outcome 13412418, $3,570 (35% win rate)
- 0xd4aa...d40c — Outcome 13412418, $2,699
