Part of: Will Neuralink’s valuation hit __ by July 31?

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $52.5B by July 31?

This Polymarket market asks whether Neuralink’s private market valuation, measured by Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price, will reach or exceed $52.5 billion on any trading day through July 31, 2026. The market resolves after the data window, with resolution scheduled for August 1, 2026; PolySpotter is tracking $1,910 in smart money activity and 1 recent signal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Neuralink's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,910.

Categories: Finance, Privates, neuralink

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market No buyer

Serial cross-market bettor added to a No position in a very thin Neuralink valuation market, and the market quickly moved strongly in their favor.

  • This bettor has traded across 26 related events and wins 80% of resolved bets.
  • They added to an existing No position in a thin market where this trade was large versus recent activity.
  • No has moved from their 82¢ entry to about 94¢, showing strong follow-through after the bet.

$1,910 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6ae0...7483 No, $1,746 (71% win rate)
  2. 0x21ff...0d71 Yes, $648
  3. 0xc602...7fc1 Yes, $500 (43% win rate)
  4. 0xa75c...895e Yes, $421 (42% win rate)
  5. 0x8df7...36c4 No, $362 (71% win rate)
  6. 0x9e88...301c Yes, $208 (47% win rate)
  7. 0xe5c2...6b76 No, $202
  8. 0x09e1...373e No, $177
  9. 0x7aa7...afb4 Yes, $153
  10. 0x7c9e...db3d Yes, $146

Related Theses

Neuralink stays below $52.5B

Covers 2 related markets

Databricks stays below $170B

Covers 1 related market

OpenSea FDV stays below $100M

Covers 1 related market

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $52.5B by July 31?

9dWill Neuralink’s valuation hit __ by July 31?$1,910 tracked1 signalFinancePrivatesneuralink
Yes
2¢
No
98¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Neuralink's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
101¢
91¢
82¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $52.5B by July 31?

10d ago

$1,910 on No at 82¢

82¢98¢16¢

Related Theses