Part of: Cincinnati Open: Learner Tien vs Sebastian Baez

Cincinnati Open: Learner Tien vs Sebastian Baez

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $73,045.

Notable Trades

Linked cluster drove Tien repricing

A linked three-wallet cluster deployed $56.6K on Learner Tien amid a 520x volume spike, pushing the market from roughly 87–89% to 100%, though much of the buying added to existing positions.

Three linked wallets bought $56,553 on Learner Tien, including a bettor up nearly $39M lifetime.
The trades coincided with a 519.8x historical volume spike and a rapid move to 100% odds.
Most of the buying added to existing Tien positions, so the signal is strong but less fresh than a new entry.

$56,553 on Learner Tien

Serial sharp scaling into Tien

A serial cross-market bettor with an 85% win rate and positive edge added $16.5K to an existing Learner Tien position at 80%.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $65,337 across $760,153 invested.
They added $16,492 to an existing Learner Tien position, showing increased conviction in the 80¢ entry.
The bet was large relative to the detected 24-hour market volume, while Tien’s price has since risen to about 86¢.

$16,492 on Learner Tien | Wallet win rate: 89%

Top Holders

0x2c33...0563 — Outcome 74595020, $60,000 (60% win rate)
0x4afb...ed2b — Outcome 74595020, $5,000 (47% win rate)
0xa06e...f2f9 — Outcome 74595020, $2,174 (29% win rate)
0x5b62...d87f — Outcome 74595020, $2,000 (81% win rate)
0x2d6a...8add — Outcome 74595020, $1,357 (59% win rate)
0xf42a...8470 — Outcome 74595020, $1,332
0xc144...c809 — Outcome 74595020, $1,296 (74% win rate)
0xd898...a47d — Outcome 74595020, $1,119 (63% win rate)
0x75a7...2d61 — Outcome 74595020, $1,050 (29% win rate)
0x5ce4...62fc — Outcome 74595020, $1,000 (75% win rate)

Related Theses

Taylor Fritz will beat Nakashima

Covers 1 related market

J.J. Wolf will defeat Duckworth

Covers 1 related market

O’Connell will defeat Majchrzak

Covers 1 related market

Lorenzo Musetti will beat Michael Zheng

Covers 1 related market

Cincinnati Open: Learner Tien vs Sebastian Baez

ResolvedCincinnati Open: Learner Tien vs Sebastian Baez$73,045 tracked2 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Sebastian Baez in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Sebastian Baez. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Learner Tien. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.