LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

This Polymarket covers the LEC Regular Season best-of-3 match between Natus Vincere and Karmine Corp, scheduled for April 24. The market resolves to the team that wins the match, with cancellation, ties, or delays beyond 7 days resulting in special resolution rules. PolySpotter is tracking $15,405 in smart money activity on this market, including signals from several high-win-rate esports bettors.

This market refers to the LoL match between Natus Vincere and Karmine Corp in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for April 24 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Karmine Corp. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $48,343.

Categories: Esports, league of legends, Games, Sports

Notable Trades

New whale repeating big bets

A very new wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and just put $15.4k into Karmine Corp during an unusually heavy pre-match volume surge, suggesting real conviction despite the market being liquid.

  • This wallet is only about 1 day old and has already been flagged 3 times for large bets, with over $21k in notable action
  • They just bought $15.4k of Karmine Corp at 72¢ during a 71.9x surge in market activity before the match
  • The bet is large enough to matter, but it was placed in a liquid market with a tight spread, so this looks more like conviction than random price chasing

$15,405 on Karmine Corp | Wallet win rate: 100%

98% win-rate esports bettor

A massively profitable 98% win-rate bettor with a long cross-market history put nearly $19k on Karmine Corp during an unusual pre-match volume spike, making this a strong copy-trade signal.

  • This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades and is up about $3.33M lifetime.
  • They have done this across 399 markets and 265 events, so this is not a one-off hot streak.
  • They bought nearly $19k of Karmine Corp at 73¢ as volume ran 64x above normal before the match.

$18,878 on Karmine Corp | Wallet win rate: 98%

86% win-rate esports sharp

A highly profitable serial trader with an 86% win rate bought the underdog at 29¢ into a major pre-match volume spike, making this a strong copy-trade signal.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up nearly $698k on $1.76M invested.
  • They bought Natus Vincere at 29¢, a cheap underdog price that implies a roughly 3.4x payout if they are right.
  • This wallet has traded 157 markets across 116 events, and this match saw a 64x volume spike before the bet.

$6,159 on Natus Vincere | Wallet win rate: 86%

74% win-rate esports bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate bought the underdog at 31¢, making this a credible sharp entry despite only one signal firing.

  • This bettor has won 206 of 278 resolved trades and is up about $187k overall.
  • They trade across many related events — 34 markets over 33 events — which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought Natus Vincere at 31¢, a clear underdog price that suggests they see the line as materially too low.

$3,199 on Natus Vincere | Wallet win rate: 74%

Linked trio backing favorite

Three coordinated wallets, two of them linked by funding, all bought Karmine Corp at 68¢, and each wallet shows an unusually high historical hit rate even if much of it comes from heavy favorites.

  • Three wallets piled into Karmine Corp within minutes, with two funded from the same source.
  • Each wallet wins 89-93% of resolved bets across 81-122 markets.
  • They all bought at 68¢, a concentrated bet on a liquid esports match rather than random small flow.

$4,701 on Karmine Corp

Top Holders

  1. 0x40ea...832f Natus Vincere, $107,652 (0% win rate)
  2. 0x3833...33d1 Karmine Corp, $25,861 (98% win rate)
  3. 0xc65c...ea39 Karmine Corp, $23,009 (54% win rate)
  4. 0xd33e...c0d6 Karmine Corp, $21,574 (100% win rate)
  5. 0xd812...2558 Natus Vincere, $21,239 (86% win rate)
  6. 0x9770...0ff5 Karmine Corp, $19,003 (56% win rate)
  7. 0xdd88...dadb Karmine Corp, $11,053 (53% win rate)
  8. 0x06c0...e618 Natus Vincere, $10,321 (74% win rate)
  9. 0x1f03...b1be Karmine Corp, $8,822 (57% win rate)
  10. 0x509d...0a6b Karmine Corp, $8,815 (54% win rate)

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LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

2h$48,343 tracked5 signalsEsportsleague of legendsGamesSports
Natus Vincere
33¢
Karmine Corp
68¢

This market refers to the LoL match between Natus Vincere and Karmine Corp in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for April 24 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Karmine Corp. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price History — “Karmine Corp
75¢
68¢
62¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

3h ago

$15,405 on Karmine Corp at 72¢

72¢68¢4¢

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

3h ago

$18,878 on Karmine Corp at 73¢

73¢68¢5¢

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

3h ago

$6,159 on Natus Vincere at 29¢

29¢33¢4¢

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

12h ago

$3,199 on Natus Vincere at 31¢

31¢33¢2¢

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

15h ago

$4,701 on Karmine Corp at 68¢

68¢68¢

Related Theses