What does this hantavirus prediction market cover?

The market covers whether a confirmed case of hantavirus is reported in the United States by May 15, 2026. Any laboratory-confirmed infection within U.S. territory qualifies, even if exposure or symptoms began elsewhere.

How will the US hantavirus case market resolve?

It will resolve to Yes if an official source, primarily government information such as the CDC, reports a laboratory-confirmed hantavirus case in U.S. territory before the deadline. If no qualifying case is reported, it resolves to No.

When is the deadline for this Polymarket hantavirus market?

The market deadline is May 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, though the listed resolution date is May 15, 2026. Reports must fall within the market’s specified window to qualify.

What counts as a confirmed hantavirus case?

A confirmed case means a laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection. The rules state that the case qualifies regardless of where the person was exposed or when symptoms started, as long as the infection is identified within U.S. territory.

Is smart money active on this hantavirus market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,151 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal on this market, with recent alerts including funded wallet clusters, outbreak-news chasing, and profitable trader activity.

Part of: Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

This prediction market asks whether any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection will be reported within U.S. territory between market creation and May 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based primarily on official government sources such as the CDC, and PolySpotter is tracking $1,151 in smart money activity across 1 signal so far.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $23,806.

Categories: Weather, Pandemics, Hantavirus, Culture

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor flips to No

Sharp wallet override: despite a weak price-impact signal, the buyer has an 82% win rate over 157 resolved markets and is now buying No after closing a prior Yes position.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $25K lifetime.
They flipped from a closed Yes position into No, suggesting a changed view rather than routine profit-taking.
Bought No at 25¢ while the market now sits near 30¢, showing early momentum in their direction.

$1,151 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable serial trader flips Yes

A very active cross-market trader with $528k lifetime profit flipped from a prior No position into a $3.1k Yes buy during a sharp upward move.

This bettor is up $528k lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved markets.
They flipped from a prior No position into Yes at 72¢, suggesting a changed view rather than routine position management.
The Yes price jumped 13.5 percentage points in just over 2 minutes around this trade.

$3,137 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%

Profitable serial trader flips Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader flipped from a prior No position into Yes during a fast upward move, though the trade size is modest relative to market volume.

This bettor is up $528K lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved trades.
They previously held No but has now bought Yes at 70¢, suggesting a changed view.
The Yes price jumped 13.5 points in just over two minutes, matching the direction of this buy.

$1,780 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%

94% winner buying Yes

Weak price-impact alert, but the buyer has a very strong resolved-market record and positive lifetime P&L, making the Yes buy worth surfacing under the sharp-wallet override.

This bettor has won 94% of 325 resolved trades and is up $27k lifetime.
They bought Yes at 71¢ after a fast 13.5-point move, suggesting they are following momentum.
The market is liquid, so the edge is mainly the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.

$1,167 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable whale flipped Yes

Large Yes buy from a highly active profitable cross-market trader who appears to have flipped from a prior No position while moving the market upward.

This bettor is up $528k lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved trades.
They bought $8.6k of Yes and pushed the price up quickly from around 72¢ to 78¢.
They had previously closed a No position, so this looks like a fresh flip toward Yes.

$8,633 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%

4-wallet funded cluster

Four linked wallets from a previously seen funder are taking the contrarian No side after a sharp 1-day move toward Yes, suggesting coordinated conviction despite this wallet's weak resolved win rate.

Four linked wallets share the same funder and have been seen together in prior runs.
This trade buys No at 32¢ after Yes jumped 32.5 points in one day.
The market is active, with $222K traded in 24 hours, so this is a contrarian bet into real volume.

$1,044 on No | Wallet win rate: 30%

Sharp buyer chasing breakout

Although the alert signal is weak, the buyer has a strong resolved track record and bought into a fast-moving Yes market after a major 1-day price surge.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $6.6K lifetime.
They bought Yes at 74¢ while the market was moving fast, up 43 points in the last day.
The market has heavy recent volume, suggesting this move may be tied to fresh information.

$1,103 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial trader

A highly experienced cross-market trader with over $512k lifetime profit bought Yes into a sharp 45-point daily move on a liquid Hantavirus market.

This bettor is up $512k lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved markets.
They are a very active cross-market trader, with $6.2M deployed across 106 markets in 74 events.
Yes has moved up 45 points in the last day, and this buy came during another fast 13.5-point move.

$2,366 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%

New wallet chasing outbreak news

A brand-new wallet with repeated large flagged bets is buying Yes into a sharp upward move on a time-sensitive public-health market.

This wallet is only 7 hours old but has already made 6 flagged bets totaling about $10.9K.
Yes has surged 37 points in the last day, with a rapid 13.5-point move in just over 2 minutes.
Buying at 79¢ suggests the bettor expects confirmation before the May 15 deadline.

$1,185 on Yes

78% winner fading spike

Sharp profitable wallet is fading a major Yes spike by selling Yes at 84¢, equivalent to buying No at 16¢.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up $43k lifetime.
They are fading a huge move: Yes is up 42.5 points in a day, and this trade is equivalent to buying No at 16¢.
Entry at 16¢ implies a roughly 6x gross payout if no qualifying U.S. case is confirmed by the deadline.

$1,087 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%